The future of truck (and auto) prices

Yes. Auction prices are normalizing again but varies from good to stupid every day depending on who is there. Biggest problem is new car dealers got into the used market in strength and have deep pockets and no clue on how the market works. They drove up prices combined with lack of new inventory. The whole lack of inventory was man made, there were shortages on various things but you could still order a vehicle and wait for it. The had to have it just because it was there mentality emptied the lots in a hurry with little coming in to replenish and manufacturers working at 90+% capacity already with a “just in time delivery” mentality could not produce any more than they already were.

 

In 2009 when automakers were about to close I purchased a new dodge 3/4 ton diesel 4x4 four door truck for ~$31,000 I don’t remember the actual list price but sale price was about 60% of msrp. Traded it a couple years later cheaply then sold that truck for substantial profit! Had two dealerships trying to get my business local deal said I’ll try to match the best price you can get. They did and I bought it, called the other dealer then they immediately said, oh we can take another $1,000 off and have it delivered to you at no charge. Uh, sorry you knew you had one chance. I like supporting local when I can.

 

Just in time delivery= just a little late

 

It ain't supposed to!

 

you are correct but that almost never happens. Nobody wants to sit on inventory, costs money to do that . Combine that with every one doing the just in time- delays happen and the whole ideal system goes kaput. Its pretty bad when stock items ( in my case grinding wheels) are 6-8 weeks out sometimes more. On top of this is the minimum order fiasco. example 1 wheel, $215 ea min 4 wheels, this a new job, I need to get 200 pieces per wheel at that cost level - I have no idea if that will work with this particular wheel and they won't sell just one for trial, tried one similar from another mfg- $200ea., 32 pieces per - that don't fly. I have a few now that I get 100+ out of at $100/ wheel + shipping I can live with that but these are new old stock and I can guess that new run will be in 200 ea bracket. I have one other wheel that again is new old stock, haven't tried it yet- if it works its possible that it may reach 200+ pieces per, Current cost is $100 + ship. I do not know what a new run would be but my guess is $200+.per wheel. with a 8 week lead time maybe.

 

JIT only works if your supply chains are robust.

Even Toyota has supply chain issues, so JIT is basically as you say... Just a little late. On today's world, we can deal with that. Now when it's months or years late, that's an issue.

 

I paid 32k for my 2007.5 ('08 body style) Silverado Duramax in July of 2008. It stickered at 43k. It had been on the lot in Monroe, NC for 16 months. I bought it while on a business trip, flew home, drove my 1/2ton back down and returned home with a new diesel.