I am in the middle of this decision making right now. I need to replace my commuter car. We just built this house 2 years ago and it was designed with the intent of having PV solar. We couldn't swing it at the time of construction because I didn't want to finance it and I didn't really need to replace my commuter car at the time. I can have PV solar installed at ~7.5-8 cents/kWh, for the next 20 years if you believe the numbers from the solar company, and don't have any equipment failures in that 20 years. My commute is 35 miles and I can charge for free at work, so I could conceivably charge at home for about 80 cents, drive to work on all electric, charge at work for free and drive home on all electric. In the example above you are not comparing apples to apples, a Ford Explorer does not equal a Tesla. I know you were just using the cars that were given but it's not a fair comparison. Try doing that same comparison with a Chevy Spark vs. a Chevy Bolt and the numbers will look very different. Also you did not factor in the higher cost of insurance on an EV or PHEV. Insurance on an EV or PHEV can be as much as 50-75% more, again comparing similar models. I had a deposit on an 2019 Hyundai Ioniq PHEV a few days ago until I got a quote from my insurance company.Another point you don't address is charging efficiency, or the cost of installing a high capacity charger at home. Chargers are ~ 1.5-2K$ and about 85-90% efficient so 9kWh of electricity "costs" 10kWh. Another point you didn't consider, and this may be different depending on where you live, but in Maine yearly vehicle excise tax is base on the MSRP, so the EV or PHEV with a higher MSRP than its equivalent model will cost more to register. For me, I am having a hard time getting past the longevity factor. I like to keep my vehicles a looooong time, I believe it is the only way buying a new or relatively new vehicle makes sense. I am not sold that I can get 12-15 years out of an EV or PHEV. If I invest in PV solar and oversize the array to help offset the cost of "fueling" the EV and the EV doesn't pan out long term then I also wasted my money on oversizing the array. There is also the longevity factor in the PV array itself, not to mention the cost of gas unknown.
That's really really ugly, if they make it like that. There's still the issues with lack of pedestrian safety with the "undentable" stainless steel body. All of the rest of the auto makers need to adhere to pedestrian safety standards, why not Tesla? All these CT deposits for "pre orders" are going to have a good number of people that have never driven, let alone owned a pickup, realizing a lot of things that they never thought about in a short period of time. Elon Musk will get an education in pickup trucks shortly. I think he and his team will be able to react, and change to fix some of the problems. Towing is a big one. Sure, electric power has great tq right off the bat, it will tow great, but current battery tech has the range reduced so much that the model x crossover, towing a small camper well within tow capacity losing over 60% range compared to not towing. Add on the 1 hour recharges and you won't get very far in a day compared to internal combustion engines that you can refill 35 gallons of liquid fuel in about 10 minutes. Sure ICE vehicles lose range while towing too, but big fuel tanks are quick and readily filled nearly anywhere. You can also carry fuel in auxiliary tanks, be out 5 gallons to get you out of a bind, or the big tanks mounted in the bed of a truck. Hydrogen fuel cells could be an answer to that, but Elon doesn't think hydrogen is the answer and the possible rival Nikola, with their Badger ev pickup that has a range extending hydrogen fuel cell might not even exist in the near future despite backing from GM. There's others out there, though. Then there's this. Tesla's Elon Musk Challenged to Run Baja 1000 in Cybertruck
Apparently it's actually supposed to have a high payload. Right now it's vapor ware though. Just ballpark figures and nothing concrete to really go on. It's supposed to actually go head to head with 3/4 ton trucks, not half tons. You could find what Elon claims, but then you'd have to go back to my comment about Elon over promising and then under delivering. Leasing a Tesla is usually the best deal now, and that's why many do this. this way you don't need to worry about replacing the battery that is big bucks, or with about repairs that can happen. Most ev owners are either unwilling, or incapable of doing repair and maintenance. That's exactly what Elon wants. Battery cables and all sorts of electrical components need replacing? What? Tires and brakes and suspension parts wear out? Not possible
Don't forget road taxes for electric vehicles. Most people forget that, and it's a doozy typically. Internal combustion engine vehicles pay for the road taxes with fuel taxes included in the fuel price. When you buy no fuel, but still use the roads, the money's got to come from somewhere. State taxes to make the EV driver's pay their share. Also, in 7 years the batteries will probably need to be replaced. There's a huge chunk of change but going in the Tesla's favor. There's also other components that will need to be replaced. Electric vehicles have maintenance costs. They just are typically further out in the life cycle, but when they hit, they are major expenses. Electric motors themselves fail, and there's several instances where they do, and well before they are expected.
I had a long conversation with the owner of a Nissan Leaf recently. We were at a job and i saw this guy pull in and plug his leaf in once a week. So one day I walk over and ask him how he likes his electric car. He tells me the dealer in State College told him all the great attributes about the car, including the 200 mile range. He drives about 45 miles from home to work (over some pretty mountainous terrain.) No problem, right?... well...maybe not... He goes on to tell me the "200 mile range" is in perfect conditions and on flat ground. Here in pa, there is no flat ground or perfect conditions. If you want A/C or need the heat and defroster, windshield wipers and enjoy the radio, well...now your down to a little over a hundred miles. Drive over the mountain between State College and Milroy and now your down to 90 miles. And when you run out of battery you get it towed. Which happened to him several times. As we begin to part ways he looks over his glasses and says, sternly, "don't buy one".
Yes, Tesla has done this before. Try to rebuild one, and they'll shut it down. You can do that with any of the other vehicles and it will still run. So in that sense, even if you own the car, you never truly "own" it.
I get 20-22 mpg with the Explorer. And, I work 9 days per 2 weeks. So, 220*9*26 = 21480 / 20 = 2574 * 2.5 = $6,435 per year in gas. That totally ignores the fact that my car gets 38-40 mpg (and it is driven more than half the time since I can work from home during dicey weather). Of course this year, I have driven about 6k miles total for all vehicles, so all those numbers are out the window anyway. I don't see getting a ton of pellets in that car you are using for comparison, nor any of the myriad of other things that I haul. Interesting that you compare my mid size SUV to a car. You are comparing apples to oranges. It needs to be compared to the mid level tesla truck if your going to compare costs. And the electric usage goes up pretty good when you do that.
Also you have a motorcycle. If you ever ride that to work, and I'm sure you do, those Harley's, as big as they are, are very good on gas for their displacement. I see a lot of people that have the full dresser HD's get 45 mpg on a regular basis. That's well and above the 38-40 mpg of the focus.
are you invest in NIO as well? China has big interest and involvement in Mexico where mining will provide the battery material. If there is every resource challenges for Tesla, you can bet China will not play nice and continue unabated. I foresee Chinese mercenaries handling cartel thugs who try to create problems, but that is from a different source on a different issue. Still ties in with potential setbacks.
Your are correct, I get 45-48 mpg on the bike and ride to work once or twice per week. However, I haven't ridden in over a year because of visual issues, so didn't include it. The total cost of the 3 vehicles (car, truck, bike), I still spent less than the Tesla truck (mid) is expected to cost of $49k per Car and Driver. And all 3 are paid for. I do gotta admit that the adjustable ground clearance sounds cool - but isn't something I would look for in a vehicle.
It'll be a long time till a Tesla (or GMC/Hummer) can tow a 12,000# camper (affordably), ....but if i had lots of play money, I'd be playing with a tiny electric car with 1200+ horsepower....just for fun...
The 2022 GMC Hummers are set to hit the market at $112,000. I mean...seriously, thats twice the price of a regular 1/2 ton truck...(and 4x what I'm willing to spend...)
That is more than I paid for my house 7 years ago + standing seam roof + all new windows (including 2 large bay windows). I would certainly not pay that much for a vehicle!
Yep thats almost twice what i paid (26 years ago) I really think people would be more interested in EV's if they were the affordable alternative to a fossil fueled car. GM is selling a $10,000 EV in chyna. GM's Baojun Sells New EVs In China For Less Than $10,000 If i could charge it with (cheap) solar panels, now you got my attention. But, again, solar charging is still redonculous!
If you want a cheap ride get a Honda Civic or a Toyota Corolla. If you run all of the numbers I don’t think they can be beat!
