Predictions for 2020

Discussion in 'The Pellet Bag' started by Iron Stove, Feb 12, 2020.

  1. Iron Stove

    Iron Stove

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    I realise it's only mid February, but not seeing any real winter staying power for next 2 weeks, it has me thinking to " next season".

    So what do people think? Will pellet supplies be above normal with the near record warm winter in the northeast? Prices drop to be more competitive with traditional heating sources? Or status quo?
     
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  2. unbidden

    unbidden

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    Status quo is my guess. The industry threatened us with a shortage this season.... didn't happen.
     
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  3. Skier76

    Skier76

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    I'm debating picking up another ton. However, I may hold off and see if prices go down a bit in the next few weeks.

    How are supplies looking at the local big box store?
     
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  4. Iron Stove

    Iron Stove

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    I haven't looked. Maybe next few days, see how they are stocked. I've burned under a ton. I posted how natural gas is at crazy low prices, so I run the furnace mostly, and supplement with pellets on cold days, or when using the man cave.

    Interesting read on gas here. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4322528-natural-gas-of
     
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  5. subsailor

    subsailor

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    I went to my dealers today to pick up some Platinums. None to be had. In fact he was out of Lacrete and Cubex as well. The local farm store here in town is out of pellets too. So while there may not be an industry wide shortage, it looks as though there are local shortages.
     
  6. Iron Stove

    Iron Stove

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    I'd love to know tons produced. I know in Ct, second straight month were more than 7 degrees above average, and that Carrie's through most of the northeast. Huge , 400 degree days less than normal.
     
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  7. Tullytown

    Tullytown

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    Although i dont buy the middle of the road BBS pellets, at home depot they pull all the skids around middle of Feb and put up grills and summer stuff so no, wont see any drop in price. Boom! Gone from the floor! Every year here outside phila even though we have traditional cold and possible snow storms from now till mid March. Never understood the reasoning.
     

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  8. jtakeman

    jtakeman Moderator

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    Still available at every stop near me. Pellet house is out of some of the softies, But loads of others.
     
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  9. Tullytown

    Tullytown

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    yeah.. it's probably end of february here now that i recall.. every year.
     
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  10. Pete Zahria

    Pete Zahria

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    That is accurate.
    :yes:
    We have never been completely out. But nervous on occasion..
    Have been without certain brands fairly regularly.

    Dan
     
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  11. Iron Stove

    Iron Stove

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    Shocking. If we had a normal winter, or cold one, I'd think it would be pandemonium.

    Here's a fact, January and February, for Hartford ct, have only had 4, that's FOUR days with highs at or below freezing. Crazy warm, and there were near shortages. And we are averaging 7+ DFN.
     
  12. bogieb

    bogieb

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    Local TSC and Aubuchon's still have lots of pellets. However, I've never seen those places have a "fire sale" like there was several years ago at BBS's. Aubuchon's is having a sale of 10% off of pellet purchases this weekend (for quantities of 10-49 since pallets are already discounted). TSC may put out another 10-15% off coupon (or may not - I don't have any insider info).

    TSC should be able to hold onto pellets thru the summer as they have plenty of space. Not sure how Aubuchon's divests of extra pellets (they don't have much space so I assume they get moved elsewhere).

    Of course neither place carries upper tier pellets.
     
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  13. Skier76

    Skier76

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    I may venture out and check the big boxes to see what they have.
     
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  14. Lousyweather

    Lousyweather

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    this is actually well-said. We aren't out either, and I am sure we will weather whatever storm the non-winter has to bring us. That being said, we also aren't buying new product, as pricing from manufacturers is high, and we have stock product still to sell. It is also the time of year where the BB's and some dealers just stop bringing product in.....so yes, local shortages, but not really any big shortages from manufacturers...
     
  15. Skier76

    Skier76

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    Hit the Wallyworld HD yesterday for some plumbing supplies and scoped out the pellet situation on the side of the building:

    8 or so tons of Chow
    2 or 3 tons of FSU's
    4 tons of Green (not so) Supremes
     
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  16. Tullytown

    Tullytown

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    Guarantee that Home Depot's outside Philadelphia come March 1st, BBQ grills and lawn mowers will be where the pellets were.
     

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  17. Iron Stove

    Iron Stove

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    Saying 50+ Sunday and Monday. Cant belive we will go whole month of February with no snow Accumulation.
     
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  18. Skier76

    Skier76

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    Tell me about it! We went for a hike in VT today. Had to use the snowshoes. But things are not looking good for next week. Ugh!
     
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  19. Iron Stove

    Iron Stove

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    Lucky you!

    Hartford is at .4" this month, tied for 3rd lowest February. I haven't had a coating in over 5 weeks. Only 4" of snow for calendar year 2020.
     
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  20. Skier76

    Skier76

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    You picked a good year to sell the sled! I have about a mile on each...just from zipping around the woods behind the house in VT. I probably could have done a ride this weekend on our trails, but didn't have the time. Every ride our club had this year has been cancelled thus far. Not sure if that final cookout the weekend after next will happen. Ironically, there was over a foot of snow on the ground in mid December when we had a Club Christmas gathering.
     
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