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DOW 20k!!! - the investing thread

Discussion in 'Everything Else (off topic)' started by basod, Jan 25, 2017.

  1. lukem

    lukem

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    At least a movie ticket is worth something though. Just joking....kinda.
     
  2. Canadian border VT

    Canadian border VT

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    You haven’t seen a lot of new movies huh..;):rofl: :lol:
     
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  3. brenndatomu

    brenndatomu

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    So worthless that we haven't even used the gift card we were given years ago for the local movies 10 plex o_O should re-gift it I guess... :rofl: :lol:
     
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  4. Canadian border VT

    Canadian border VT

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    Any PMs going on I would be interested in; a few credits short of a masters in intl finance from Tuck (Dartmouth bus school). Too conservative for my own good sometimes :headbang:


    Amazon how does a book seller make $$:rofl: :lol:
    Google at $90 come on it’s free :hair:

    but I did buy some GameStop at 20 and sold at 250:D

    unfortunately only $100 dollars worth:(
     
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  5. basod

    basod

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    Yeah the fed is bullish on inflation and more stimulus is only going to fuel that bull.
    I’m starting to hedge into crypto slowly as it may be the only thing of any value going forward with the manipulation of precious metal markets.
     
  6. basod

    basod

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  7. basod

    basod

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    I’d further add I think we are going to enter a period of stagflation unless any of these rainbows and unicorn fart ideas of green energy which have already been incentivized through the continuing PTTC actually do something- which they won’t.

    for the record I’m a big investor in NEE & NEP which have utilized this dating back to the Bush administration.

    all your savings are being debased under the current and past government officials.
    It’s as if they think deficit spending will never affect them- while they are in office- emphasis added.
     
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  8. JackHammer

    JackHammer

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    How is your crypto doing? I was up 2000% with Doge a few months ago and saw that cut in half. Not sure how the other markets are doing. I know the government is trying to regulate crypto bit I just don't see that happening.
     
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  9. hovlandhomestead

    hovlandhomestead

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    I sold our crypto position in Bitcoin last week on the news that Gary Gensler of the SEC talked mean about the space, aa well as China adding new regulations and restrictions. I read today that Alibaba has stopped selling crypto mining equipment. Central banks and governments in the advanced economies do not like competition, and well be rolling out their own digital currencies. They will likely continue now to do all they can with regulations and oversight to damage the crypto space, and sentiment. All that being said, I moved all our Ethereum to Ethereum 2, where it is staking, and kept my Algorand position, which is also staking. We are also holding some Litecoin and letting that ride as well.

    In terms of other markets, my wife and I are standing pat on our precious metal holdings, real estate, 60% position in a stable value fund, 40% stocks, monthly 401K contributions to stocks, while continuing to add a little to our cash reserves. We sleep well at night with this portfolio no matter what is happening in the markets.

    Now that things seem to be accelerating to the downside in society at an ever faster rate, and as we move into the early stages of what could be a “crack up boom” (see Von Misses), the scenario we are planning for is the ability to pull the plug on the rat race at the drop of hat, and move back to our country life on the homestead that we are more comfortable with.
     
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2021
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  10. JackHammer

    JackHammer

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    Someone described your strategy a few years back in a click-bait title... "invest like a cockroach". Sounds like you have a good setup.

    Jamie Diamon spoke mean about crypto in 2015. He was very wrong. China has been banning crypto since then too. It is just smoke and posturing in my opinion. As long as there is a single computer mining, the block chain lives on.

    Why the move to ETH2? I know there is value in the concept of tokenization but I don't know why one ETH would be better than another. Why is Algorand good?

    I didn't know there was a name for the crack up boom concept. I was wondering how a hyperinflation scenario would affect the banks, it looks like they get kicked in the teeth, I like that.
     
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  11. hovlandhomestead

    hovlandhomestead

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    Keep in mind JackHammer that I am an armchair student of economics. Studying markets is interesting to me, and I have done so intently since the financial crisis of 2008. As a psychologist I am particularly interested in behavioral economics as a means to explain how human behavior is involved economic decision making and market trends. I believe in that people tend to instinctively do what is most expeditious in the moment, and are wired to feather their own nest. It is hard to consistently practice the discipline of denying our impulses and desire for immediate gratification. This tenet predicts that the politicians only look as far as their next election cycle, and make promises to constituents based on pet projects enabled by the Federal Reserve Bank. This collusion has resulted increasingly irreparable distortions in markets based on hundreds of trillions of world wide debt currency. Deep down we know this is wrong, yet it is ongoing. As a Christian I believe this is also part of the spiritual battle between behavior guided by the fruits of the Holy Spirit - and sin.

    I sometimes wonder if JP Morgan has since taken up a crypto position. I know some other bigger institutions are doing so. This concerns me due to the potential for derivative price manipulation in crypto through futures and options, much like what I believe is being done with silver, with JP Morgan being the leading offender.

    I moved to Eth2 to earn more Ethereum on my funds by staking. Since I started buying Algorand it is has gone from about number40 in market cap, to being in the top 20 now. It is being designed by a highly regarded team led by MIT professor Silvio Micali for decentralized transactions with added speed and the requirement for far less computing power than Bitcoin. The code is known for being mathematically sound and based on well designed code. Since it is automatically staked when purchased, you immediately start to accrue more Algorand on daily basis.

    Higher interest rates benefit banks and bank stocks. How high interest rates will be allowed to rise is another question, as the Fed has signaled that they want to start tapering the buying of mortgage-backed securities and bond purchases sooner than later. They may be trying to rein in inflation and let some air out of the bubble based on jawboning, and really have no intention or ability to do so. In fact some believe that they will have to increase purchases rather than taper, or they try to taper and quickly have to reverse course. I remember Ben Bernanke saying - shortly after the 2008 financial crisis was papered over by stimulus conjured out of thin air - that he did not expect to see normalized interest rates in his lifetime. In fact Modern Monetary Theory has been in play for a long time now…and has been gathering more and more steam since the 1971 decoupling from Breton Woods.

    The early stage of the crack-up boom feels good to those who hold financial assets which are rapidly inflating. Once debt levels everywhere have reached current levels, and increasingly unsustainable levels, it takes evermore accommodative policy and stimulus to keep credit/debt issuance flowing and asset prices steady or rising. However, trees don’t grow to the sky. Counter party risk increases when defaults rise, as the Lehman Brothers and the current Evergrand situation illustrate. Highly leveraged derivative contacts result in heavy losses when the prices of underlying assets fall. People come to realize that as their assets and wages are loosing value while inflation is unavoidable and the only way forward. They rush to purchase things they need, further flaming inflation, indebtedness, and bubbles, until the currency collapses, either through attrition, or by plan, which finally exposes the true value of assets.

    Inflation is now being exacerbated by pandemic induced demand, helicopter money, and the damage that has been done to supply lines resulting from the unprecedented shutting down of world economies. The assets that will continue to hold relative value are likely to be things like land, commodities, consumer staples, energy, PMs, crypto, and productive businesses based on sound share price to share earnings ratios. Once over-priced assets are repriced lower, there may be a period of time when cash on hand will be useful to buy things for pennies on the dollar. If the Fed ends up kicking the can even further down the road, buying more assets, rather than taper, and the massive fiscal stimulus programs being proposed now come to fruition, financial assets will resume their rise further into bubble territory. But again there will come a limit, or so-called Minsky moment whereby there is a massive reversal of leverage.

    One scenario that might come to fruition over an extended period of time would be the boiling frog scenario, akin to what is going on now, whereby wealth is further concentrated among the top 10%, while the rest slowly but steadily experience their purchasing power and standard of living decrease. The increasing divisions, violence and social unrest we are seeing are symptoms of this trajectory.

    Who really knows though. The best we can do is continue to learn, invest any amount we can over time, no matter how seemingly small, automate our plan, diversify with hedges in place for a wide range of scenarios, and stay out of debt. Also we have to remember to stick with our plan through market fits and tantrums so that we are always on the other side of some trades, thus continually buying undervalued things at any particular time. I also think people would benefit from getting back to self-sufficiency and the essential things of the spirit in order to adapt and thrive in faith during what I believe will be a period of increasing scarcity, unrest, and potentially huge repricing of assets.
     
  12. JackHammer

    JackHammer

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    Lots of really great stuff here.

    As far as alignment with my own thinking...

    The Algorand concept is interesting. I did some mining in Doge back in 2015. At one point I had over 3 million coins but lost it all when Moolah collapsed. That was nearly a 2 million dollar mistake and growing. I still like Doge for the fact that distribution dries up much quicker than other coins, at an exponentially decreasing rate. Us humans have a hard time understanding exponential changes. That whole thing about inflation attached to Doge is silly. The number of coins minted will not account for lost wallets when crypto reaches ubiquity.
    I spoke with a security engineer out of the Canadian Fed at Defcon 2019. He was insistent that the US government was trying to crack bitcoin. I am not surprised and I do believe the guy was telling the truth. It seems the government is trying to give people a dollar option for crypto but a regulated, centralized dollar seems even worse than fiat.
    As far as the crack up boom. It seems like we are boiling the frog at this point. The market is skeptic because of inflation, and crypto is good but it is very speculative. Metals would also be a speculation. Land sounds interesting but I don't like the taxes and I don't want to put the effort into renting it out so again, it would be a speculation. Given the above options, I think people are forced to pick one of the available bad investing options because they/we don't understand the footing of the market and value of currency.
     
  13. iBob

    iBob

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    I'm invested in $XRP and $ALGO.
    I have two Airdrops coming from the Flare Network. One is up and running (canary network $SGB Songbird token) and the other is waiting for the stress test of the canary network. I personally think the Flare network will engulf ETH and Bitcoin in the coming years.

    I got into my position late last year. Luckily for me I held through all the volatility and remain in profit.

    I intend to retire early. Crypto is going to help make that happen.

    Cheers,
    Bob
     
  14. basod

    basod

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    I’m long on a bunch of these investments. Now that BTC is pushing back to 60k territory pretty confident we’ll see 100k within 6 months.
    Galaxy Digital should uplist soon- seems to be a bunch of institutional shorts that are suppressing the price.
     
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  15. hovlandhomestead

    hovlandhomestead

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    “When the big boys miss the boat, they bring it back.”

    I was watching the recent dip all day and timed the most recent bottom just about right to pick up more Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and threw a little over a grand into Shina Ibu as venture capital because you never know. If it can knock off a few more zeros, or get to even a half cent in 2-3 years time I will be happy.

    Algorand didn’t dip enough for me to buy any more of that. I have a good amount staking now so I am picking up a little everyday as it is.
     
  16. BCB

    BCB

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    Anyone hear about BTFD? I believe they're supposed to list this week. Crypto ETF

    BITO listed yesterday.
     
  17. Canadian border VT

    Canadian border VT

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    Saw it BITO I would rather own coin then fund
     
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  18. billb3

    billb3

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    Yeah, managing futures has to cost something . Course, at 68 years old, I'm more into dividends and extracting $$$ today rather than looking <down the road>. Still dollar cost averaging some VTI though. I probably shouldn't be buying anything more but it's tough to get out of accumulation mode.
     
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  19. brenndatomu

    brenndatomu

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    Don't get too carried away though, you'd could live another 30 years
     
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  20. billb3

    billb3

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    LOL, I get by on about one third of my SS. If I live another 30 years and stay healthy I'm gonna be RICH !!