My Lowes too. They also include the Inferno golds which I would buy to try if they had a few single bags inside just for giggles. Green Teams are going for $349 a ton. I was there last night looking to help Santa out and one of the employees calls me Mr. Somerset. He says they have not sold nearly as many pellets as they have in prior years. Schoondog
I hope so, Its sad seeing feral colonies with no place to keep warm..... Hard to get them to admit that. Most say "Ohh we're selling plenty", But them high stacks don't lie.
It does say a lot. We all know what we had seen in prior years. Odd that this is the year they ordered big time and jacked up the price only to have oil prices tank. How could they forget what brought about so many pellet burners.
I believe the fact that they did stock up this year means they haven't forgotten the demand of years past...ie: so many pellet burners. Seems to me they brought in a lot of product so the multitudes of folks would have product to buy. Also, keep in mind that its still early, winter-wise. What concerns me though, is what effect this might have in late 2016/early 2017. Because of the warm weather, and low fuel prices these days, will some of the brands become unavailable next year, due to logistics and lack of profit? I would not be surprised if some of the options we enjoy today were not available next year. Look at the Big Boxes....they bucked tradition this year and brought in a lot of stock, only to have it sit. Historically, they never really did this. So, what do you think? Will they do it again next year, or revert back to the just-in-time practice that they have successfully historically deployed? I would say the latter. Makes it pretty confusing for dealers really to decide what to do. Will demand stay low? Will fuel prices stay low? Do we, as dealers, load up on product which might not sell, or should we rely on the pellet companies to supply us product then to find out they cant/wont? For me, this year isn't over. Pellets are selling, but not as briskly as I would like to see. No pellet company with sitting product has panicked yet and made any price concessions to us either. And even if they did, it would have to be a pretty compelling offer for someone to stick their neck out and buy.....I am talking about pricing vastly lower than it is today, and I don't see it happening for a couple months at least, if ever. eh, my 2 cents!
I agree with Lousyweather. The pellet business is a tough business and is dictated by a lot of factors. If prices fall many pellets you see in the Northeast will not be available. Raw material cost and especially transportation costs play a huge roll. What we have right now, and mainly due to weather is an over abundance of pellets in one area of the country. But a good six weeks of cold weather would take care of that. Once we see what the rest of winter holds, we will have a better idea. I still think supply and demand are pretty much in line and if a flush happens it will be quick and then the market will stabilize. Many of us that sell pellets in that market have other options. The west and some parts of the midwest are having very cold conditions. I've reallocated pellets for the Northeast to other markets. Other manufacturer's can do the same. We had 70,000 new stoves installed last year, and new installations the previous years. Not a lot of new production for domestic business has hit the market if recent years. There is a severe fiber shortage in Eastern Canada, so many of the Quebec mills have had to curtail production. Where I couldn't compete for business in Quebec and Ontario in previous years, I'm enjoying a brisk market this year. So in summary, the market could go up, it could go down, but I'm not going to stick my neck out. lol
$64,000 question.... I agree with pelletguy... it is still early in the heating season. That said, I don't see how it can get so cold in the remainder of the season, to change total usage for consumers... It would have to be arctic like. We have only had ONE average temp day here this month, out of 19 days. Predicting 55° for Christmas eve!! And a pretty mild November.. There are people out there telling of only using a handful of bags, as opposed to tonnage.. Never mind cheapie oil.. If the BBS end up with a crapload of stock come spring, they may indeed lighten the load for next season... which.... if it is a cold season... will result in more shortages.. for those outlets. Smaller local dealers should still be okay. At least the ones that don't wait until it gets cold to place their orders...! We have a really good inventory right now, and can wait to see the weather/sales patterns for the next month or so.. Can adjust then. Frankly... it must be brutal trying to figure all this stuff out, for guys in the production/distribution area of it all. Dan
I burn cord wood but this thread caught my attention a while ago. Part of what I am having a hard time understanding is why we don't employ more pellet boilers in institutional buildings like in northern europe. Bulk delivery would mean volume for the manufacturers and less dependence on the private market place....
There is some of that going on. Our VA and the local school both burn bio mass. Not cord wood, not pellets. It is chipped up stuff. There is a business around here that installs pellet furnaces and does bulk pellet delivery. However, we have natural gas in the city parts now, and with fuel oil down so low, the incentive to change over is at a standstill.
I agree, Last season we were cold from the get go and really really cold in mid season(polar vortex anyone??). I feel what we have saved already is gonna stick all season. One thing though is we all mostly bought our full stash plus a buffer. I would assume(I know bad!) that most of the pellet burners did as well. What oil has taken away won't have a home even if the price sky rockets. Those pellets are what I think is what we see stuck in many of the lots. And they are what I'm expecting to see bargains on unless the pellet retailers or boxes can move them to a colder area that might have a deficit? Gonna be a tough season for the little pellet guy and the small mills. Box store may not be selling pellets or rock salt, But they are still selling other items. They won't realize the mistake until they have to either store these stacks or reload on to trucks and send back to the warehouse. They may just cut the price and take the loss. Some of the pellet houses are already dumping prices and having sales. This was the reverse of last season, The west was warmer and we were much colder than normal. I heard some mills were grabbing excess stock and shipping east to help us with the crunch we were enduring.
I think the absurdly low oil prices are having a bigger effect than the weather. My feeling is many a pellet burner stocked up early, and is now sitting in that stick while they enjoy dirt cheap oil. Those that usually buy now are saying screw pellets, oil is easier and cheaper. Spring deals are going to get interesting next year IMHO. There are already some deals out there that are the lowest prices I have seen or heard of in the five years I have been burning.
Hasn't caught on here like over there. And if it does, Those boilers generally use an industrial pellet(higher ash content) which offers larger saving than the premium residential pellets do. I would think they wouldn't burn a more expensive pellet unless there was a supply issue. We use an industrial boiler to heat our building(work). It was originally designed for #6(bunker oil) and converted to #2 once the #6 was outlawed around 1986. 2 years ago we were looking at savings and NG was the word and were offered an upgrade by the gas company. We got a deal on the burner and a 5 year lock on NG price to convert.;;;. I would expect that if the pellet dealers want an in on the industrial side they will have to do similar programs to sweeten the deal to get these conversions. So far all I think has been adventured in the states is biomass(wood chip) energy plants. Which are basically coal plants converted to natural biomass?
Honest to GOD, Ive burned 4 bags this year. Natural gas it at a 13 year LOW, and pellets are arguably a Highest or second highest price since I started burning. My gas bill, including hot water, was $100 the past month. When winter really hits, ill burn some, but not like when they were $225 a ton. Or when I started at $135
Pellets started as using " Scrap" sawdust, that was being dumped into landfills, hoarse bedding, etc. We are now chipping whole trees in parts of New England, and experiencing fiber shortages in many areas on a rotating schedule. If they tried to expand to pellet boilers, can you imaging the increase in demand ? I read somewhere a while back, that if everybody tried to heat with wood, all the local forests would be gone in a few years.
Yes we chip logs, But not the quality used in lumber. They use the ones that don't make the cut for lumber grades for pellets. So again its another waste product per say. Most of these industrial boilers don't require a premium grade pellet. I don't think it would effect the supply as they use the industrial grade crap we would have issues burning in our stoves. These are the pellets that mainly get shipped over to Europe and Asia. I don't know all the details but the wood industry is renewable to an extent. So as long as we replant what we sew, They is a future harvest. Even the bugs that we got hit with are still being used and the forest is replanted in its wake. As long as we use it wisely we should be safe. I don't know the growth rate of the pines, But heard that the Poplar trees can regrow in as little as ten years and can be harvested for lumber. As long as we don't clear cut and leave ruin behind us like the rain forests. We can sustain for the future. Love to hear JustWood thoughts on this as he's in the industry. Should be able to better explain.
IMHO opinion, I don't think large industrial pellet units will take off in the U.S. NG is cheap and raw chips and processed wood waste diverted from landfills is cheaper yet. There are more and more biomass burners coming on line all the time that are consuming a cheap non classified product. I've heard there is technology where NG is burned with wood waste to clean up the emissions. Pellets are expensive and as we have witnessed supply is unreliable. As far as the pellet industry decimating our forest's,,,,, it will never happen. If you look at a map of the big pellet exporters who consume massive amounts of wood waste they are positioned very near the coast , near or just outside large population centers and in areas with longer growing seasons. IMO , I think this was a move with a lot of forethought. I believe as the pellet export markets mature and pellet making technology improves more waste wood diverted from landfills and cellulosic fiber such as miscanthus,switch grass,hybrid poplars, will be used for making pellets as well as juice and food processing byproducts, farm residue,yard waste, and possibly even municipal waste. There is a lot of available feed stock (and cheap too) for industrial pellet making once technology improves. On pellet price. There is a price floor. I believe currently its $200-$220 +/-. Don't think youll see many price concessions below that threshold . IMO the BBS have finally figured out the logistics of the pellet market. It's the same song and dance I've tried pounding into my wood customers heads for many years and the same concept you "Pigs" live by. STOCK UP EARLY. I'm sure every manager of Lowes and Home Depot were called every thing under the sun late last winter which was reverberated to the pellet maker. I'm guessing they (Lowes/ HD) pigged out just like many of you guys do. That is how they make money. Selling things,,,,,,,, and if your supplier tells you year after year to get product before season or you wont have it,,,,,,,,and you don't. When your customer is pizzed ,,,, maybe you're in the wrong business. Petro home heat is cheap. Burn what you brung !
