http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2016/02/low-heating-oil-prices-depress-domestic-wood-pellet-market.html?utm_campaign=Feed:+RenewableEnergyNewsRssFeed+(Renewable+Energy+News+RSS+Feed)&utm_medium=feed&utm_source=feedburner Most of it we already know, But puts some prices on where oil would need to be before pellets can compete again!! $55 bucks a barrel or so they say.
I think the northeast was colder than usual, But we(the northwestern region) were extremely mild. Not but a few weeks of cold and only a couple of artic blasts(AKA as polar vortex) nipped us this season!! Oops, We the north east were warm were the northwest was colder. I gotz it bassackwords as usual!! Only thing I took from this was the comparison of pellets to the current price to oil and where the price would be for pellets to again compete. The rest is a bit skeptical IMHO and could easily change with just a few variables(oil price being a key). Another is the mills that export are in better shape than those that only cater to the residential crowd. Luckily many of us in the residential crowd don't have the oil option so we might be able to score pellets at a more reasonable rate for the time being. But with mills ramping down, Could we also see supplies dwindle? I won't take a chance and will fill as quick as possible to be on the safe side. One hiccup and we could be in a struggle rather quick like.
Maybe in other parts (like way, way north - Canada), but I can guarantee that NH had a very mild winter and was usually 10-30* above average temp-wise except that Sat-Sun a couple of weeks ago.
Oops, My bad. Northwestern was colder than usual. We(Northeastern) were warmer. I got the north part right is about it, Never could tell my east from west.
Correct, due to the Saudis intentionally driving down the price of oil via oversupply so that the cost of fracking here was no longer justified. Waiting to see what Iran's entry into the global market does to further depress prices.
We are starting to see some Spring pricing come through, looks like the price will be lower this Spring than last Spring. I do wonder though, what this portends for later this year. Does it mean that some pellet co's will not be able to keep the doors open, or, due to shipping, out of New England mills will no longer be able to compete with local pellets or oil? That might mean a shortage in the fall. From the retail perspective, no one really has a clue what to do. Buy in the Spring only to have prices continue to tumble? The pellet co's who have given us pricing seem to communicate that the price is about as low as it can be and still keep the doors unlocked. True? No idea. Do we, as retailers, stock up for a fall that might precede another crazy warm winter? Can the "shipped in" pellets even compete after adding the shipping costs from across the country? A lot of unknowns here. I do think that there will be considerably less choice in the variety of pellets this fall. Some very good pellets we see these days just may not be around. I know of one very good brand which was being warehoused in Springfield, and was well-liked on this site. The company who owned them just let them go for a song....very cheap here, folks, and THAT company wont be back anytime soon after losing their azz with this debacle. Brand starts with B. What might really mess things up is if we actually have a cold winter. No one buys until its too late? Everyone scrambling for product when the pipeline dries up and no one has any real stock? Ugh. Too many variables. What will the price of fuel be? Sure, you can google the "experts", but, like the weather, they are usually only correct in retrospect.
^^^^^^^^^^^^ Liked, but only for a GREAT technical analysis. Don't want to see doors closing or shortages.
hardly a great analysis....I'm just really saying no one knows what the heck to do, but possibly based on those decisions we could have a shortage when we least can afford one.
Maybe I should say a great real world, hands on analysis. Your not blowing smoke like certain people last fall.
Early spring buy is the key and not to care or worry about what prices might be later on... that could drive u battso. This way your done...
Bingo, but then, that is just life. Those risks and variables are all part of the markets. Just look at electronics. They won't keep an inventory because they get outdated before they are even boxed up. Supply and demand. Prices are "what the market will bear."
That, my friend, has always been part of the the "pellet game" and those with the largest stash at the best prices are the grandest pellet pigs.
