will there be a pellet shortage this fall?

Heard from yet another outlet this morning that a milder than normal winter is expected for NE this year. Something about el nino. So no shortage predicted, in fact there will be an excess with corresponding fire sales to make all the pellet burners smile. Like this:

 

need a "not like" button, but time will tell...…..

 

Will there be a pellet shortage this winter?
If the mild winter predictions turn out to be as accurate as most weather predictions and people didn't prepare, then yes.

 

only if i do not get my self in gear and buy a few tons.

 

So... a shortage is imminent??

 

point....counterpoint

 

like nearly everything in life, it depends on who you ask....we all hope not, and pellet supply is certainly driven by area, but some of us think so......still depends on alot of unquantifiable things, such as trucking, other fuel prices (oil), etc. I guess I just suggest trying to secure your supply now, rather than rolling the dice, but that's me. Some people roll the dice and win.....

 

Ask yourself, when did you experience a "real" pellet supply shortage in your area. Folks around here are often buying by need, just like food, car fuel etc. But then, we have several outlets and pellet manufacturers. Short distance trucking if you are content to use local pellets. Our local HD quickly reacts to needs and will bring in pellets to keep their customer base. There are also many independent outlets that also do everything in their power to keep their sale base. Oil is going down again. That is often the trigger for the cost of other options.

 

I know this is going to sound dickish but I have never heard of a shortage around here.

 

yea, you guys are in the country of the best pellets IN the country.......and close by (or reasonably so). Kinda like the folks in Maine......they live near a mill, and it appears theres lots of pellets there, so, no shortage, right? Two mills in CO closed down this year.......ugh...

 

A few years back now, but it was REAL... We had people driving from all over New England
to get 5-7 bags.. We started at 10.. went to 7.. then 5... Thought about going to 3,
but we got a truck load in... Henry paid 300 a ton for it. (no it wasn't DF's either)

People lined the road to get in, to get theirs, and we asked them to wait three days before coming back.
There wasn't a pellet to be had ANYWHERE around us...
All we did, all day long was load by hand 5 at a time... Henry's daughter came in just to answer the phone,
which never stopped ringing for more than 3 minutes...
One guy called offered 500 bucks for a ton.
Sorry... don't do that..
We have had some issues getting them at times, nearly every season.
But nothing like that.
Also hope we never see it again..

Dan

 

I remember 1 year in the 6 that i have had my stove where pellets were short. I was all set with my pellets but did buy a few extra jik. I also remember buying 4 tons at $99 a ton, and buying a few other high quality tons that year at $199 a ton. It is hit or miss. I always go into the year with about 1.5 years stock. I replace em in spring when prices are the lowest. Usually $239-249 a ton for good softies. Buy about 4 in the spring as during the year you can usually score a ton or two on the cheap to split with another pig.

 

Ugh indeed.

 

yea, that was bad times......people driving 100 miles for pellets in February. We ran out for about a weeks time that year....not good. People were one their way, wanted us to "hold" some.....then wouldn't show up. Finally ended up in the unenviable situation of telling people the only way to hold them was to pay for them......ugh, again. We were expecting a truck in on a I hope to never see that again! We were expecting a truck in on a saturday.....had a gal show up at 7am and literally waited until 2 pm to get some....and we couldnt guarantee we would even see the pellets that day! While we like pellet sales, I don't want to ever see THAT again either.

 

There will never be a pellet supply issue, maybe a trucking issue, but not a supply issue. Pellets are a by-product(waste material) in board mills. As for the little pellet mills, it’s hard for them to compete and that’s why they close. Heck some bulk suppliers in my area are offering 5 year guaranteed pricing!!!

 

Dan,
Which winter was that? Was it 2013-2014 or was it 2014-2015?

 

It was when oil was more expensive and less plentiful than it is now. Those with oil heat systems have the luxury of shutting off their pellet stoves if the price of pellets appreciably rises due to short supply. Sort of a checks and balances that wasn’t that wasn’t readily apparent during the year of pellet shortages that is being referred to.

 

I gotta be honest here.
I have a hard time remembering what I did last week..
I'll ask Henry...

Dan

 

Starting out with a winters supply is the only way to go... if you can afford it.