will there be a pellet shortage this fall?

Nothing going on here in the USVI, I have been selling pellets /firewood for a few years now, only sold 1 bag of pellets and maybe 1 face cord......

 

and they're hauling in more wood than usual...
better get more pellets!

 

You know I just pulled that out of the hat.

 

Just like the squirrel and the chipmunk, I've been stocking up for a cold winter. With trucking being tight I figured to bring in as much as possible over the summer. We'll see if it is enough

 

I do not think so.

Pellets here are derived from sawdust coming from sawmills as a byproduct, and with the hurricanes last year, the sawmills are cranking. The price of Spruce Logs for instance went from $265 last year to $425 this year; they cannot get enough! If that many logs are sliding through the mill, then sawdust will be piling up as well. There would be a glut on the market.

But Pellets get their retail price based on the cost of other products. Oil is up, therefore firewood will be up in price too, so the price might be up; but I doubt if the price will reflect that from a shortage of pellets itself.

 

The issue I think will be how the retailers read the tea leaves. They will supply according the intensity of their sales. Transportation plays a huge role. The retailers buy in bulk delivery so the can get the best deal or most reasonable prices. don't expect them to pay huge transportation cost on small deliveries if they can't pass that cost along. Box stores don't want pellets taking up space after the market slows. If buying habits change, and folks by pellets like they buy other fuel, then maybe things will level out better. But because old habits die hard, many of us still by like it was 2008. I have changed my habits to improve how I use my storage space. Space is now a premium because I have to share it with my son. He keeps a supply of pellets at my door so I don't have to go far to get them. The good thing for me, for now anyway, is that I have dependable and reasonably price pellets always accessible to me. MWPs are very good for my stove and heating needs.

 

Does anybody have any idea as to whether or not the new trucking regulations are affecting delivery of pellets? Been hearing that with other industries, products are sitting at the factories because the electronic monitoring of OTR trucks is forcing them to stop on the road a few miles short of their destinations due to hitting daily and weekly driving limits.. If there ends up being a shortage late in the winter I can only imagine that this variable will have at least some effect.

 

Regulations have led to a shortage in drivers too.
So far this year, we've been able to get enough trucks.

 

Zactly.

Dan

 

I can tell you... most certainly!!
Granted.. one factor.
However, it is huge. The guys that deliver to us, are talking about how many guys
are selling out... Coupled with what Scot sez... no new guys coming on board.
Glad some are not having problems.... We are.
One outfit has got his own trucks now, so that is good.
The other outfit, we just can't get them with any sort of reliable guess.
Have got a couple of late.. which is good, but had a lot of stock on order for a long time.
Hopefully another tomorrow. Which will pretty much get us caught up...

So I guess, it isn't so much a "pellet" shortage, as it is a delivery issue,
and it can only get worse, IMO.

Dan
edit: no delivery tomorrow...

 

I can only imagine that the lobbiests behind the legislation own interest in railroads and pipelines.... Too bad that something that is sold as a safety enhancement ends up hurting more people than it helps... that gets close to being political, but not a hit on either side... just an observation of what is going on...

 

It would be pretty hard not to get political. It's a politically driven issue.
There's more to it than just the electronic logs too. The environmental regulations on new diesel engines are also expensive with the diesel exhaust fluid (DEF) costs and higher fuel usage.

 

Sounds like we can't expect to see those sweet deals of last year

 

you never really know, Russell, but most of those sweet "deals" I think already happened......like in April, May, maybe into June. We are now entering into the heating season (or, at least the "I gotta get my pellets now" season), and its somewhat unlikely youll see sweet deals now, but that's all in the eye of the beholder, isn't it?
Ive chatted with one or two suppliers telling me they plan to produce less than last year, which could be bad from a supply standpoint if the winter is extended or colder than usual.
Had a truck driver in here the other day telling me that Turman had 70 truckloads sitting in Virginia without trucks to bring them up......the truckers don't wanna come to New England and go back with no load, and the retailers don't want to pay for a load coming and going. We had to add $200/load just to try and entice them to come up....I dont blame them....hauling nothing makes them no money.

 

Hmmmmmm... sounds mighty familiar...

Dan

 

Lots of really good pellets made right here in NewEngland. There are mills located near me. Seems supplies are adequate. Huge demand for lumber right now so there is a good supply of sawdust. I haven't seen anything about short supplies in this area.

 

I just today heard from a pellet supplier who I know and respect (he's a member of our evil pellet-controlling cabal), who communicated to me this morning that one of his most popular lines is "sold out for the next few months". This isn't a small supplier, but I refrain from giving out the brand or name of the supplier, as that's in our Cabal Charter....kinda like Fight Club. The next few months to me, August thru October, are easily the busiest months in the pellet supplying world. So, even though 55.6% of you don't think there will be a shortage, and I hope you're right, well, in this case, so much for majority opinion. If you're still sitting on your hands waiting for "that killer deal" to order your pellets, or because its just too hot to even think about it, you might want to get off that proverbial fence soon. You know me, in 2 or 3 months, when folks are complaining about supply, I am only going to point to this post........fair warning.

 

Did the supplier mention why they are out of stock? Production problems, transportation issues, sales are up over 100%, etc.

 

yup....privileged info tho