I am not to concerned about pellet supply next winter. I think NY & NE will see an increase in Eastern Canadian product. The exchange rate will be very friendly. As for oil --- The frackers are a wild card in the pricing structure. They need around 45 up to 50 I am told to break even. Failing that I can see them shutting down with huge debt going on their books. A friend in the venture capital business was up here visiting for a few days (salmon fishing with me . He said that several banks are currently on the edge of the seat due to notes coming due this summer that may or may not get paid. Although he does not believe the burst will be as bad as the last collapse he says it will not be pretty and could take some banks down. He also believes that the major oil companies are sitting like vultures waiting for it to fall and then they will swoop in for cents on a dollar. The question is at what price point will they reopen the wells -- 50 60 - more ?? I would not want to be in the energy business today regardless of the fuel, except perhaps
Not sure about the increase in canadian product. Fiber is very short supply in Eastern Canada. Many sawmills have shut. The other problem is that demand doesn't follow a 12 month time frame. Even if supply and demand are equal, when everyone tries to go through the keyhole at the same time it creates artificial shortages. After this last mild winter and no sense of urgency and a complacency about supply we could be setting ourselves up for a very interesting winter. It reminds me very much of 2008 when dealers didn't stock up, and wouldn't pay up. Demand became so strong the price skyrocketed. may not happen, but I still maintain the distribution and retail chain is under supplied for this time of year based on the last 3 years. And early buys are a fraction of what they were in the previous 3 years. Only time will tell.
I'm sitting on 4 or 5 bags under 3 tons of them for next year, so get to like them next year anyway . I tried to push some people at work when the fire sales were going (plus told them about the Oakie deal) - most of them had no idea about the sales until I mentioned it, then they said they had enough for this year. I tried to educate them a bit on the realities (as I see them anyway), but as far as I could tell it fell on deaf ears. One person only buys a certain brand (more correctly, her husband buys - she had no clue what it is), and gets them from one of those Pellets-R-Us places that deliver up from MA, so there was no interest there either. All of these people have barns and acres (which I don't), so it wasn't a storage issue either. Well, I tried, I guess I'm the ant and they are the grasshoppers. Or, I am the girl that cried "Wolf". Either way, I'm set for two years so can pick and chose if/when/what I buy.
bogieb if you like those okie golds then you would like these too. Picked them up at Tractor Supply last season (fall 2014). I had just gotten a ton of okie golds the month before, so I had to chuckle when I saw these sitting out in the yard at TSC - take a look at the bag, it might look mildly familiar to you It's the same glorified horse bedding, but in these bags they cost $60/ton less. Funny thing is, these were readily available in the 2014 - 2015 heating season. Then just this past season, I didn't see them anywhere, nor did I hear of anyone else spotting them either. Weird since there is a ton of them (pun intended) sitting up on the hill over at Mt. Upton. Anyway, I suppose they have to leave there eventually to get sold so keep an eye out for them at TSC. You know, that is if you need any more pellets in the next few years.
The TSC's around here usually don't get that type of stuff (usually MWP in the red TSC bag from what I've seen). But, thanks for the heads up - those bags do look fairly familiar but I probably wouldn't take a second look if you didn't point it out. And, depending on price, I might find room for a few more. After all, I'm still burning so making room; slowly this time of year, but surely.
May not be necessary, Jay. Even if the golds do go away, Upton is bagging the same SYP product in Minute Man bags...
you, our friend, are the smart one! The thing you may want to do next is to let your coworkers forget that you have a stash. When the shortages hits next, they will be all over you trying to get some of your stash. You did your part.
I am no expert on the pellet supply chain (expert = (X) Unknown Quantity - (spert) Drip Under Pressure BUT I think it is necessary to look past the trees and see the forest. There is no shortage of fiber. There is perhaps a shortage of by-product that comes from saw mills and related ventures. In my view the biggest issue in the pellet making industry is the penchant to depend on by-product manufacturers. When (if) the industry matures it will be dominated by stump to extrusion manufacturing similar to the paper industry, (perhaps by the same capitalists who control the paper industry supply chain). Without something along those lines taking place the industry will forever remain unpredictable, undependable, and under capitalized.
and now ..... I am off to hunt salmon, rainbows, and browns. I have no preference and will even take a laker at the end of my string.
Let's not forget the Canadian dollar difference, for those products.. We already know that those prices are going up, not down... Another monkey wrench in the mix for dealers. Dan
