That could be OMVs yard for all we know. I'm relatively new to FWH. Has he been around. He hooked me up with some somersets last year
Always appreciate your insight this is a very unpredictable market we are in I get why retailers and distribution has cut back , they got stung this past season and don't want to get bit again . IMO if they cut back too much they will get bit again . We don't know what kind of winter we will have , but I doubt it's as warm as this one and I think that oil may creep up in price making pellets a more attractive option .
I think he popped in once this season, early on, but haven't seen him around. You're right, that could be his yard! lol
I for one am planning on a "usual" off season purchase of some of the good stuff to top off the tank. Right now its the lowest it has been in years so I am not letting that slip by-this too shall pass. Even if it we get anther winter like this one, it wont go to waste. It will keep just fine until it is needed and likely selling again for another 40-50 bucks per ton.
The thing is, no one has to put their money where their mouth is. At this point, there are a lot of maybes, mights, mays, etc. But to put a significant amount of income with such an unsure market....tough decision....its not like they don't go bad. I do agree that folks could find they are in a bad spot (both the retailers AND end users) if we have a perfect storm of bad things happen this year......retailers don't bulk up, homeowners waiting until the last minute to order, some retailers/mills/wholesalers go out of the game, oil price shoots high, trucking is tough (this is the only known entity-its not gonna get easier in trucking)....
there's no real downside to loading up some inventory for the upcoming season...and placing a few orders if they come with nice incentives, if you are funded well. to an extent... the product does not go bad if kept inside.....and it will get sold eventually.....sure, the cost of money plays into it, certainly for guys that have to borrow to inventory, but for the most part the pellet houses know that they have to carry inventory for next year and the mills are trying to move product to us which means some (not a lot) reduced pricing from last season. The stock left over from last year in our inventory is another story.....it must be sold at the new - reduced prices IMHO. that hurts, and will make us more cautious about over buying. but, as pelletguy says often - no one can profitably sell pellets at $199 retail. I agree. trucking costs, product costs, labor, overhead, cost of money, and loss all play a part. so decent pellets have to be in the $240-$260 area. i'm certainly not a big player by any means, and the new kid on the block, but i stocked up as best i could and have orders paid for sitting on the mill floor (inside) until i can take them. in for a penny, in for a pound, as they say. I can't sell it if i don't have it, and I need to be competitive, so i have to buy early. Pellets are here to stay without a doubt, and oil needs only to to be $40-45 a barrel before the the economics works, never mind the 'green thing' of burning a renewable fuel, or the comfort we all talk on having the house at 70 plus! The BBS seem to be the ones that threw logic to the wind and decided to sell below cost...way below cost. i think we will see as a result of the beating they took this year (which was a boon and great for you guys that stocked up BTW) the BBS bringing in much lower inventory next fall. That will be good for the pellet houses as it trickles down... and then the BBS will get greedy again probably. so goes business. but i could be wrong..... I don't think we will see a shortage year coming up, simply because of the supply in everyone's hands from the mill to the consumer. A more stable price and availability platform would benefit everyone of us.... The truth is at the end of the day, I have to make a profit, the trucker has to make a profit, and the mill has to make a profit. or the product does not make it to the consumer. here is where i look for an emoticon of climbing down off the soapbox
Well, if folks dont make a profit, they arent around real long. Tbe BBS's can lose money on some items, because they make alot on others. Also, keeping pellets in stock, under a roof. Its possible, depending on how much product you sell, and how much roof you have. If youre talking about keeping, say, a few trucks under roof, sure. But what about keeping over 100 under a roof? Pretty tough. We can keep 4-500 tons under a roof, but after that, nope. So, depending upon the size of the operation, may be doable. Larger ones? probably not. Look at the pellet co's....they keep it outside. See the Upton pictures on thread 26 of this post. Thats several THOUSAND tons, tens of thousands. They wont be under roof. So, lots of pellets? Those pellets have already seen MONTHS of weather....how long do you think the plastic will stay "good"? Its usually less than a year.....what shape will they be in? Who knows? As for a shortage....I am not so sure. I like to think there wont be one, but if everyone waits and orders at the end of summer to early fall, there could certainly be a logistical issue which would create a shortage.....I dont know what to think on that...... The downside to loading up way early could be the possibility of a price drop, shrinkage (waste) of product, etc......I dont know many retailers stokcing up at this point. We are bringing in some product, nut not much....still waiting to see what shakes out. Hopefully we know more in a couple weeks when we put out the spring pellet flyer......
I'm not planning on buying much of anything next year other than 5 or so bags of good stuff during my summer travels. I need to clear some space in my basement by the summer of '17 to install a new furnace and get rid of a bunch of stuff that's buried behind the pellets. I'm going to have the jitters all year not buying anything.
I'm going to buy , because I want to support the little guy . I want him to still be standing after this crazy year . I don't want to go back to depending on the BB's for all of my pellets , that gives me the jitters
I sure hope mount upton is well wrapped. Many of those oakies have been there since the begining of last season. The pile has grown but my guess is there were 5-10,000 tons of em up there in may. So they are already going on a year. I am also betting there isnt a fifo shipping as the pile grew outwards.
A reason I stick to COD purchase. At first, I paid in the spring and took delivery some time in the summer. No more. Too many stories of good intentions gone wrong. I've seen that go very wrong in the oil pre buy programs here. Doors close and everyone is out.
