Just talking with my brother, and this is the EARLIEST spring buy in a few years !!! Last year really didn't start till late April, May. 2014 was Mid April ish by one of my fliers. Heck, Astronomical winter doesn't end for 2 more weeks !!!!!
Most aren't pulling stuff in just yet, PMHP They are selling off whats left over. Mills usually don't start until the first week of April IIRC..............
I was thinking the same thing, early buy sales are generally announced in April around here, at least the last couple years. Curious what happens if a dealer gets getter pricing from a supplier for early buy, let's say $50/ton less than last season for example. What does the dealer do if they are still sitting on 50 tons of product they paid the old higher price for? Sell them off for less profit? Don't buy the lower priced product and skip early buy sales altogether?
it's what i expected would happen. i can't speak for others, but some product bought at higher prices will go out at the spring buy price... and then be replaced by the lower priced product. you can't skip the early buy, IMHO.
someone here mentioned a cost that is rarely discussed if you burn oil.. getting oil furnace serviced.. most do it once per year just out of safety reasons... 150.00-200.00 per year average service cost [on top of Oil cost..]
Couple of things, April isn't that far away. Dealers start gathering prices and shipping times and be ready to go in April. Every dealer i have has some inventory but have been pairing down over the last 2 months. Perspective is a funny thing. Given the bludgeoning from the box stores many think the market is going to zero. Last year if my dealers, had the amount of inventory on hand they do this year they would be in full panic mode to buy. In other words, while it does seem there are many thousands of tons of pellets around, it is a drop in the bucket for New England. Pricing will be lower for pre buy this year, but will be higher substantially higher than 200 per ton. LW is right though this could be a very volatile market in the fall. I think there are at least 4 brands that will not be seen in he market next year due to lower pricing and shutdowns. There are 3-4 more that are 50/50. The market was only oversupplied this year due to mild weather. Help us all next year if we go back to a normal winter. Only the pellet piggies will be warm and cozy and will have to be guarding their stash! lol
Great.. Now I'll have to buy a big-azz chain w/ padlock to wrap & protect the stash. Seriously, Thanks for keeping us informed here pelletguy and providing great insight to what's going on in the Pellet World. Edit: & Thanks to all posting here, appreciate your insight too!
You don't think the ridiculously low oil is more of a factor than a slightly warmer winter? Everyone I talk to went with oil this winter if they had the option. Some of these folks are sitting on a full year supply of pellets as well. If oil stays where its at, even an ice age will not be enough to prop up pellet sales, if the prices are not real close to the oil break even price. This is my feeling on the matter any way.
Same here IHP. Only us electric and some of the propain peeps where pellet scroungin. If you look at the usage thread, The cold only had a small effect on savings. But I'm not sure that really counts for last season as most(of the ones that were all in on pellets) bought their stashes before the cold even hit. It should put a ding in this seasons sales as many won't need to refill as much due to their savings. Personally I will now need to buy 40 bags less for next season. And the experts were predicting a cold winter initially(boy I'm glad they were wrong!!). IMHO. Yes, other things effected sales. But it looks to be oil prices took the biggest whack/chunk out of it.
Oil burners should ALSO INCLUDE the cost of furnace maint each year. 150-200.00 addition cost..most people I know have the furnace serviced each year for safty reasons if anything...
That's an excellent point Tully - it evens out the differential quite a bit. A lot of the numbers thrown around of course don't take into account that space heating is more efficient vs. whole house (oil) heating, so even w/ lower oil prices, we still are ahead cost-wise, and warmer, w/ heating with pellets here. We are still on our last oil fill back in May of last year - if anyone had asked me at the beginning of the season if we would be still running on a single tank of oil 10 months later, I would have said they were crazy. Guess I'm the crazy one. But it's starting to get low, under 1/4 tank, will be scheduling an oil delivery next week, at $ 1.59 / gallon. Last year we were paying $2.89 /gallon at the start of the season. And there's the rub: with oil approx. 50% less cost, it's a heckofalot easier to just turn up the thermostat & not deal w/ lugging pellets, etc. But we are going the 'contrary' route here: pellets are here to stay, and if the Pellet Gods are kind, we may try to 'upgrade' to a second stove: the deals are starting to appear on CL, and I will be happy to take a nice Harman stove off someone's hands on-the-cheap real soon now.
Agree. No one thinks to include couple hundred a yr for professional cleaning .. like the constant heat from the stove as opposed to on/off warm/ then cool/ rinse/lather/repeat. we filled the tank in August... 275 gallons.... just had them drop off some oil since it was so cheap...[over 6 months later]... only took 91 gallons.. but to be fair, we only used the Oil for hot water.....
Even so, you must be happy w/ that low use of oil.. We were very fortunate here w/ the mild winter, maybe only a dozen days or so of temps. that we had to be concerned about pipe freeze downstairs in the crawl space / basement.. The rest of the time we just kept the bathroom sink trickling water overnight, so the well pump would cycle every so often. Last winter: 5 months straight of having to run the FHA furnace every 1.5 - 2 hours to heat downstairs, because it was so cold.
Our base is primarily repeat customers/regulars. Manageable growth has been steady every year. Very thankful for that. Here is something I see may be coming next season. This year, was actually a little ahead of last. The hitch, I think, is that so many people used considerably less, and like many here, have leftovers. If you generally buy 5 tons, and this year only used four, you will only buy four next year. To satisfy your 5 ton estimate. So... chances are good, regardless of type of winter next year brings, we will probly sell less... Unless it's brutal cold again like it was last year.. Just look at how many people here are ahead. Couple that with many taking advantage of below cost pricing, and you can see that retail next year, could be very challenging... But one thing I can say with near 100% certainty... You will not see 40-50 dollar off specials. Either early buy, or whatever. 10, maybe 15 at best. We generally do it for a short time, mostly to ease the delivery horror show later on in the late summer early fall.. It's just too overwhelming then. Again... just my thoughts. Dan
The rail system on my 52I, coupled with a support to place in front of the raised hearth, makes annual cleaning as easy as a free standing stove. simply unlatch the catch on either side an roll the stove out of the housing. the exhaust remains in the stationary portion of the stove, exposed and ready to run the brush up. the OAK stays with the frame as well. both are gasketed. everything is now exposed for cleaning, as the stove is all the way out of the fireplace
I totally agree with you! pellet pricing today at the box store is like the week after christmas or halloween. Move everything out at at 50% off. Great deal for those that plan ahead! The box stores and manufactures are now putting to bed pricing for next. It will all be done by April 15. The box store are looking at this season as an anomaly. They are stuck with salt, snow shovels and anything having to do with winter. Not everyone has options of shifting back to another energy supply. As for oil, it overacted and is slowly making a recovery. Prices will be lower than last year, but there are severe supply issues will remain if we get a cold winter. Many mills are shut now or will be shut in the coming few months. We won't see the effect till next winter.
