In loving memory of Kenis D. Keathley 6/4/81 - 3/27/22 Loving father, husband, brother, friend and firewood hoarder Rest in peace, Dexterday

Are prices starting to break

Discussion in 'The Pellet Bag' started by daffonce, Dec 11, 2015.

  1. ttdberg

    ttdberg Pellet Pig

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2014
    Messages:
    3,587
    Likes Received:
    15,952
    Location:
    CT
    b you're gonna have your stash full before early buy this year. Guess what? Think pretty much everyone is doing the same thing you are.
    :whistle:
     
  2. will711

    will711

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2013
    Messages:
    10,270
    Likes Received:
    50,828
    Location:
    Pocono Mts.
    Roasting a bag right now TT, let me get back to you in a few with pics :)
     
    CleanFire, ttdberg, slvrblkk and 3 others like this.
  3. will711

    will711

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2013
    Messages:
    10,270
    Likes Received:
    50,828
    Location:
    Pocono Mts.
    I was thinking the same thing , spring buy chit we already bought last falls left overs at a Discount :thumbs::thumbs::dex::dex::dex::dex: :dancer::dancer::dancer:
     
  4. bogieb

    bogieb

    Joined:
    Mar 30, 2015
    Messages:
    11,934
    Likes Received:
    72,264
    Location:
    New Hampshire
    Never done early buying before, so this is a first for me. I still have 1.5 tons in the basement and probably 3/4 tons in the garage from my buys for this year.

    Just gotta figure out how the car, motorcycle and 3 tons of pellets will fit in the garage (and still be able to get the bike out without moving stuff). Wish I had a two-car - but only have a single-car garage. As it is, the truck and at least 2 tons of pellets are going to be sitting outside. Hoping to get a car port installed over the summer, but I can never count on my plans working out
     
  5. will711

    will711

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2013
    Messages:
    10,270
    Likes Received:
    50,828
    Location:
    Pocono Mts.
    Ok TT , my take on the awf WP's they work fine for me , in the Accentra . I know that Steve was concerned about them funneling in his stove . Nice heat and not to much ash . They are small , with little bits . I'll see how they do in the p43 , that hopper seems to have more pellets hanging up in the corners , no matter what brand .

    pics are after 12 hr burn and a 24 hr burn and still going :thumbs: Love the Accentra :dex::dex::dex:.

    IMG_1062.jpg


    IMG_1064_1.jpg


    And the pellets


    IMG_1063_1.jpg
     
    CleanFire, gbreda, bogieb and 6 others like this.
  6. pelletguy

    pelletguy

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2014
    Messages:
    86
    Likes Received:
    411
    Location:
    northwest
    Lowes has a 1000 tons at one store??? that seems like a lot for this time of the season!
     
    CleanFire, ttdberg and IHATEPROPANE like this.
  7. artc

    artc

    Joined:
    Oct 28, 2015
    Messages:
    1,251
    Likes Received:
    8,628
    Location:
    Rocky Hill, CT
    looks like they are going to keep them over the summer and then move them again.
     
    CleanFire, schoondog, ttdberg and 2 others like this.
  8. bogieb

    bogieb

    Joined:
    Mar 30, 2015
    Messages:
    11,934
    Likes Received:
    72,264
    Location:
    New Hampshire
    I'm surprised - I ran my P43 for a month or more without an extension and don't remember any issues with pellets not sliding. The P61a on the other hand, not so much. Course with the extensions, I usually fill them up when they still have about a bag left, so don't usually have an issue.
     
  9. oldspartantrader

    oldspartantrader

    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2015
    Messages:
    317
    Likes Received:
    1,711
    Location:
    Northern NY
    The five closest stores

    The Glens Falls store I was in today. There at least 1000 ton inside under cover. I did not drive around back but the last time I was out there it was literally jammed. Are the counts accurate ??? Don't know but they are jammed with product unlike anything I have ever seen

    3245 Glens Falls, NY - Your Store
    251 Quaker Rd., Queensbury, NY

    3171 Saratoga Springs, NY - 15 miles
    10 Lowe's Drive, Saratoga Springs, NY

    2442 Halfmoon, NY - 32 miles
    476 Route 146, Halfmoon, NY

    2787 Amsterdam, NY - 35 miles
    4825 State Highway 30, Amsterdam, NY

    564 Glenville, NY - 36 miles
    93 Freemans Bridge Road, Glenville, NY
     
  10. gbreda

    gbreda

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2013
    Messages:
    7,467
    Likes Received:
    36,991
    Location:
    NH
    I spoke with the guy I have been buying from since 2010 and he is saying that word is another 25-30/ton drop for the spring. His hit sleeper pellet this year was Crabbe softies that he brought on. Likely those will be 239 at the most and possibly cheaper. Not bad for a softie that might compete with Lacrete quality.

    Its not just the bargain basement from big box that will be cheaper for next year.
     
    CleanFire, bogieb, ttdberg and 3 others like this.
  11. savemoney

    savemoney

    Joined:
    Oct 3, 2013
    Messages:
    13,450
    Likes Received:
    69,006
    Location:
    Chelsea Maine
    Wonder what they'll ask for bags of sawdust? :picard:
     
  12. pelletguy

    pelletguy

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2014
    Messages:
    86
    Likes Received:
    411
    Location:
    northwest
    Wow. 1000 tons, that's 40 -50 truck inside. I never thought lowes would have that much storage, inside. Our Lowes on the west coast much be a lot smaller!!!!
     
    CleanFire and IHATEPROPANE like this.
  13. oldspartantrader

    oldspartantrader

    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2015
    Messages:
    317
    Likes Received:
    1,711
    Location:
    Northern NY
    The Glens Falls Lowes (Queensbury actually) has a large storage area under cover that is attached to the Garden shop. It is the full width of the store (perhaps 14000 sq feet). It is about 1/2 full of pellets, mostly two high sometimes 3. It is built similar to a carport with a roof. The side walls are chain link fencing.

    If I remember the local meetings correctly (when the store was before the zoning board) the actual sales floor was about 125K sq ft and the storage area another 14 thou. It holds a massive amount of palletized goodies.

    In addition to that area of pellets the back of the store (not under cover) was also jammed with pellets last time I was out there. I do not know if that inventory is still out there but I am guessing it likely is.

    The Saratoga store (17 miles away) is the same configuration as Glens Falls and had a similar pellet inventory when we were there a couple weeks back.

    Lowes was the cheapest pellet seller in our area until the end of September (about 245 a ton for rebagged Hammers after discounts). In addition they were delivering any quantity for 19.95. They jacked there prices up and sales came to a stand still. Home Depot who were also heavily inventoried with FSU and PTL dropped there prices. At this writing Home Depot has no inventory. TSC was also way overstocked for much of the season. They droppped prices about a month ago and are now short on pellets. Lowes came late to the party and their inventory shows it. Walmart has not budged from 5.64 a bag this year but the two local stores never have a large supply anyway. They bring there pellets in from a central distribution center about 50 miles distant as needed on there regular truck routes.

    Our area is not blessed with any large owner operated pellet sellers. We have several hardware stores and small feed stores in a 30 mile radius that sell pellets. They are normally 40 to 50 dollars higher than the BB and rarely offer upgraded pellets. The two exceptions are are located about 20 miles from me. One sells LaCrete (319 a ton and has not budged since prebuy (299) as well as Oakie 349 a ton and several other brands ranging in cost from about 265 upwards. His pricing has not budged. The second is an upscale feed store that caters to the thoroughbred horse market in Saratoga. They this year started selling Vanderhoof Platinum (currently 264 a ton) and LG at the same price. He will also deliver for free as long as the buyer can work within his Trucking schedule that is built around regular routes to various farms. He has plans to become a bigger player next year. He sees pellets as a way of evening out his sales and limiting winter layoffs. I think he will be successful.
     
  14. gbreda

    gbreda

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2013
    Messages:
    7,467
    Likes Received:
    36,991
    Location:
    NH
    Last time I saw a Lowes stack pellets was in Greenland NH where the top pallet was destroying the top 5 bags of the bottom pellet. Covered storage is fine but of they dont know what they are doing, as savemoney mentioned....sawdust

    Its also disnt help that the pallets were lined up outside along the building where all the runoff fell. :confused:

    Its is definitely time to beat the brush and find the deals on good stock :)
     
  15. bogieb

    bogieb

    Joined:
    Mar 30, 2015
    Messages:
    11,934
    Likes Received:
    72,264
    Location:
    New Hampshire
    That is a price I could deal with for some of the good stuff. Please keep us informed!
     
  16. IHATEPROPANE

    IHATEPROPANE

    Joined:
    Oct 13, 2013
    Messages:
    4,671
    Likes Received:
    19,075
    Agreed!! Good stuff under $250 and I am loading up!!
     
  17. MtDew

    MtDew

    Joined:
    Oct 23, 2014
    Messages:
    250
    Likes Received:
    1,368
    Location:
    Perkasie, PA
    Yesterday I hauled home 2 tons of American Wood Fibers White Pines from my local Lowe's for $189 per ton(after 5% discount for my Lowe's card)
    I'm running out of space to stash pellets. I spoke with the department manager and he said they are already talking about cutting way back on ordering pellets for next season. Hope that doesn't mean shortages again.
     
  18. oldspartantrader

    oldspartantrader

    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2015
    Messages:
    317
    Likes Received:
    1,711
    Location:
    Northern NY
    I think it is inevitable that the BB stores will slice inventory next year. They took a chance this year and I think made far less than anticipated. Worse it appears that the lack of sales has hurt their ability to stock spring inventory because of a lack of space.

    The Lowes I mentioned has a huge inventory of mulch, soil, and peat stacked outside. Although I doubt water will do these products damage the added weight makes handling a real pita.

    Management is not happy locally and I doubt they are smiling in the ivory tower either.

    Seems the Lowes lost touch with market conditions until they had a WOW moment when needing space. Home Depot adjusted early and TSC apparently had good timing also.
     
    CleanFire, ttdberg, bogieb and 3 others like this.
  19. gbreda

    gbreda

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2013
    Messages:
    7,467
    Likes Received:
    36,991
    Location:
    NH
    All good points, especially with Lowes being completely out of touch with pricing in relation to demand. Had they dropped to even 229-239/ton for decent pellets, they would have sold far more than they did.

    My pellet house contact in southern Maine told me that last fall he had a heck of a time getting in MWP because big box scoffed them all up early. No one can effectively predict such a mild winter combined with low oil pricing, but they need to adjust much quicker than we saw this year.
     
  20. CleanFire

    CleanFire

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2015
    Messages:
    2,997
    Likes Received:
    16,525
    Location:
    .
    Geez Will,

    It wouldn't be college visit road-trip without the car loaded with daughter-requested items, and $$$ to deliver.. :D

    We had an excellent visit, I brought out a replacement laptop for her, got the laptop setup/configured & tested, then off to Portsmouth for lunch and shopping.. No (pellet store) visits though, she had to work later in the evening & wanted 'supplies', aka: the Ladies had -lots- of fun doing the shopping thing. Hair styles, nail polish, etc. were the topic of discussion - what else is new. :rofl: :lol:


    No real change in Pellet strategy here: picking up more Satisfaction (LG) pellets locally here, waiting for Income Tax/FASFA/College tuition dust to 'settle' over the next 3-4 weeks, then planning on a run out to McManus Fuels to pickup the -good stuff- in the "off-season"..

    *If we had a Harman here / a stove that wasn't limited in fuel choices, I'd be scoring -everything- not ripped open or nailed down to a pallet at the prices being offered now..

    Still rehabbing the Englander 25-PDVC stove here: motors are weak (but working) / there was lots of rust & crud, I want to use it for the heat-reclaimer project I started working on (but haven't had any time to progress due to work/travel) - I need to make a objective business decision on this stove soon, e.g.: invest the $$$ on this rehab vs. picking up another used (Harman) stove on CL: looking @ 400-500 to replace all motors / igniter/ gaskets, etc. in the Englander currently..

    I'd like to keep it given the amount of time invested in sanding/cleaning/etc. and minimum $$$ spent in paint/supplies (50) so far, but having had a break from it the past few weeks, I am questioning whether it is worth investing 40-50% of value for motors, etc. vs. a new unit to get this 2007 model back up-and-running. Really on the fence on this one.

    No rest for the wicked, gotta get ready for work, then road-warrior driving duty this week: will be stopping back regularly though, you folks post too many messages to be away for more than a day or two. :thumbs:

    Happy Hunting everyone.. :vulture:
     
    gbreda, ttdberg, bogieb and 3 others like this.