In loving memory of Kenis D. Keathley 6/4/81 - 3/27/22 Loving father, husband, brother, friend and firewood hoarder Rest in peace, Dexterday

Are prices starting to break

Discussion in 'The Pellet Bag' started by daffonce, Dec 11, 2015.

  1. subsailor

    subsailor

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2013
    Messages:
    3,693
    Likes Received:
    14,973
    Location:
    Winthrop, Maine
    I read your review. Not so great.
     
    IHATEPROPANE, bogieb and ttdberg like this.
  2. slvrblkk

    slvrblkk

    Joined:
    Oct 6, 2013
    Messages:
    6,644
    Likes Received:
    29,527
    Location:
    Northampton, PA
    They were taken over by new company now I believe...
     
    IHATEPROPANE, bogieb and ttdberg like this.
  3. ttdberg

    ttdberg Pellet Pig

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2014
    Messages:
    3,587
    Likes Received:
    15,952
    Location:
    CT
    Sub grab a few bags of those Timber Heats and see what you think, can't go wrong at $3.98/bag. The ones Steve tested he remarked were very long. The ones I just picked up are a different batch, almost all avg .5 inch length. The P43 is eating some right now. Will throw a couple bags in the P68 when the hopper is depleted.
     
    IHATEPROPANE and bogieb like this.
  4. subsailor

    subsailor

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2013
    Messages:
    3,693
    Likes Received:
    14,973
    Location:
    Winthrop, Maine
    What is your impression of them?
     
    IHATEPROPANE, bogieb and ttdberg like this.
  5. ttdberg

    ttdberg Pellet Pig

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2014
    Messages:
    3,587
    Likes Received:
    15,952
    Location:
    CT
    I haven't been through a whole bag yet and the P43 is tough to judge by because it's happy with anything I feed it. Will know more when I get some through the P68.
     
    will711, IHATEPROPANE and bogieb like this.
  6. pelletguy

    pelletguy

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2014
    Messages:
    86
    Likes Received:
    411
    Location:
    northwest
    What a year for the PIGS. I concur, it will be very difficult to find pellets @ 199 ton for very long. I'm not sure there is a producer that can sell the BBS or a pellet dealer cheap enough to make a 199 per ton price happen. This is a gift from the Gods to be ale to buy @ 199. Pellet manufacture's are not big oil. They cannot compete with oil. Not everyone has the option to do both, many only have one source of heat. We will lose those that have the option. but to expect a pellet manufacturer to drop his price do compete with oil is unrealistic. No one saw the perfect storm of a warm winter and the price of oil at $27 a barrel. Pellet manufactures sign 2 to 5 year contacts for fiber, hey simply cannot compete at these prices. There is a glut in the northeast at the moment. but we are going to lose some manufacturers, whether they go out of business or can't ship into the market anymore. Pellet mills have shutdown or on reduced workweeks will be problematic next year. I know that all mills in New England are under huge financial stress there are 2 that may be close to closing. One of the most popular pellets from the west is under huge financial stress and their business is for sale. At 199 expect to see way less selection. If oil is an options take it. Pellets will not be able to compete with $27 a barrel oil.
     
    artc, Pete Zahria, Russell and 7 others like this.
  7. bogieb

    bogieb

    Joined:
    Mar 30, 2015
    Messages:
    11,934
    Likes Received:
    72,263
    Location:
    New Hampshire
    I find the same - the P43 is happy with anything (glass stays clean it is more how much ash and how much heat comes out).

    The P61, although will eat anything, has major glass sooting issues with some pellets (FSU's for one) and with other pellets the ash won't go into the ash pan (all stays on the "ledges" - which is amazing to behold with ashy pellets).
     
    ttdberg and IHATEPROPANE like this.
  8. will711

    will711

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2013
    Messages:
    10,270
    Likes Received:
    50,828
    Location:
    Pocono Mts.
    Sub, I roasted up a ton of those this year my early season buy from TSC , didn't give my stoves any issues , I would grab 5 or so bags try them out and see . At $ 4 bucks a bag , I can deal with a few more oz's of ash , heat wise they were fine , if I see them I will buy again. :yes:
     
    subsailor, bogieb, slvrblkk and 2 others like this.
  9. bogieb

    bogieb

    Joined:
    Mar 30, 2015
    Messages:
    11,934
    Likes Received:
    72,263
    Location:
    New Hampshire
    Just ordered a couple of tons at $199/ton w/free delivery from Lowes. It will be either Maine's Choice or Inferno's. Green Teams are still $300/ton. MC were okay when I burned them before and Infernos look and smell to be alright when I dumped them in the stoves last night (haven't gotten to them for burning yet though). for the price, I won't complain. Still waiting for some of the better stuff to come down though.
     
    ttdberg, IHATEPROPANE and slvrblkk like this.
  10. will711

    will711

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2013
    Messages:
    10,270
    Likes Received:
    50,828
    Location:
    Pocono Mts.
    Which is such bull chit :hair::hair::hair: a nice pellet , but when you can get Crete's , Vander Plat's and EZ Blaze for less why would you want the GT's :loco: :crazy: Not sure why they are priced higher if it's the mill jacking the price up or Lowe's . Not going to be in my stash any time soon :whistle:
     
  11. subsailor

    subsailor

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2013
    Messages:
    3,693
    Likes Received:
    14,973
    Location:
    Winthrop, Maine
    I asked Robbie at GT that question several years ago. His response was that GT doesn't control what price Lowes charges for their pellets. However, the way he said it and the timing of the price going up when the Platinums came out led me to believe that GT had a hand in it.
     
    ttdberg, bogieb, IHATEPROPANE and 2 others like this.
  12. subsailor

    subsailor

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2013
    Messages:
    3,693
    Likes Received:
    14,973
    Location:
    Winthrop, Maine
    I picked 5 more bags of Inferno Gold and 2 bags of Timber Heat at $3.98 today. I also grabbed 3 damaged bags of GT at $1.00 a bag. 10 bags of pellets for $30 and change.
     
    ttdberg, bogieb, IHATEPROPANE and 2 others like this.
  13. will711

    will711

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2013
    Messages:
    10,270
    Likes Received:
    50,828
    Location:
    Pocono Mts.
    Haven't we heard that " I don't set the retail price mantra , from some one else :whistle::whistle: I know that the supplier doesn't set the final retail price , BUT they sure as hell influence it , by what they charge the retailer , they in turn just pass the cost along to us the consumer .
    That's my story and I'm sticking to it , shoot a hole in it if I'm way off base .
     
    JustWood, ttdberg, subsailor and 4 others like this.
  14. pelletguy

    pelletguy

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2014
    Messages:
    86
    Likes Received:
    411
    Location:
    northwest
    I agree it's a combo of the 2. The mill sets the broad parameters with the delivered price, but the dealer is the one who sets the final price. and it can vary from dealer to dealer. Some work on volume and lower margins, while other work on less volume and higher margin. Others make their money on delivery. Ultimately once the price is set for a geographical area, the selling price rests with the dealer.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Feb 16, 2016
  15. will711

    will711

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2013
    Messages:
    10,270
    Likes Received:
    50,828
    Location:
    Pocono Mts.
    Thank you for talking straight with us :thumbs: and not down to us , Steve and I like your pellets a lot just send some of them Olympus DF's our way :yes:
     
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2016
    slvrblkk and IHATEPROPANE like this.
  16. slvrblkk

    slvrblkk

    Joined:
    Oct 6, 2013
    Messages:
    6,644
    Likes Received:
    29,527
    Location:
    Northampton, PA
    Patiently waiting :D
     
    IHATEPROPANE and will711 like this.
  17. ttdberg

    ttdberg Pellet Pig

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2014
    Messages:
    3,587
    Likes Received:
    15,952
    Location:
    CT
    Suspect this upcoming season is going to get very interesting. For sure, we are in a bit of a mess right now. Have a real funny feeling this situation may spill right over into next season and it's going to get worse before it gets better. Only time will tell, I am eagerly anticipating seeing this year's early buy pricing from the mom and pops shops. All supply chain pricing justification aside, this market desperately needs a pricing reset to occur so supply / demand can get back to a "norm". If the prices begin this year like they did last year, where dealer pricing is hovering at or above $300/ton for basically every product, that will set the bar for a bad season right off the bat. If pricing comes down to let's say the $250/ton range for the good chit, then that will be a sure sign (at least to me) that things may eventually begin to stabilize.
     
    IHATEPROPANE, bogieb and slvrblkk like this.
  18. subsailor

    subsailor

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2013
    Messages:
    3,693
    Likes Received:
    14,973
    Location:
    Winthrop, Maine
    With the $199 price here now I plan to have next years pellets in the basement before the end of this year. I just wish I could get the good chit that some of you guys get at these prices.
     
  19. ttdberg

    ttdberg Pellet Pig

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2014
    Messages:
    3,587
    Likes Received:
    15,952
    Location:
    CT
    You are not alone, Sub. This activity is going to be part of next season's potential problem. People who are paying attention are going to stock up now while BBS prices are at an all time low, stashing those pellets away like squirrels. Many that would normally do an early buy purchase at a mom and pops won't be doing it this coming year because they are going to be fully stocked already!
     
  20. subsailor

    subsailor

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2013
    Messages:
    3,693
    Likes Received:
    14,973
    Location:
    Winthrop, Maine
    TT, rate the stash you have listed in your sig for me.
     
    IHATEPROPANE, will711 and bogieb like this.