will there be a pellet shortage this fall?

I gotta find me some Bunnies.

You're outta control there JT.

 

I don't know what you call it, but I feel like a stock boy on his first day at the local grocery store before a blizzard .
Aside from a few weeks in June, we've been getting our butts kicked since our spring buy in April. By the end of August, it ramped up even more. And about 6 weeks ago, the market jumped straight to ludicrous speed. And we're not even into typical heating season yet.
Aside from the box stores, the Eastern Pa/NJ market is bone dry and starving for product. Most independent retailers are out, and have been since September. We carry quite a few different brands, and we're barely treading water at this point. Many/most mills are either feeding straight off production if they're lucky, or are 6+ weeks out on orders. The demand will reach the box stores sooner than later and they will be out as well.
Shortage or no shortage, this will be a year that will be remembered in this industry for some time.

This won't help relieve the market pressure either. And it's not the first this fall.
Pellet building destroyed in fire

 

I bet Easy Heat has plenty of pellets....lol

 

We we're just talking about that today. I did see a couple of sites that showed them as backordered.

 

Ole Roy's....

 

Joe...if you had those I'd actually grab a ton for shoulders!!!

 

sorry steve but this is where we part company...
I would not burn those in a rented stove!!

 

Don't want to waste my good chit this time of the year

 

This is all good info and seeing I'm low on my pellet stash I'll probably order 3 tons to put aside .

 

Diet Mountain Dew isn't pellets. Lets not confuse the issue....talk pellets.
At this point every brand we sell is very difficult to get, if not impossible. Purely Pine, for instance.....unavailable. Supply, trucking, rail....no matter....if we cant get them to the consumer, or they cant pick them up, its a shortage....why confuse the issue?
I don't think it ties the customers cash up to the extent it ties the dealers cash up. The cash resources are limited for everyone, more for some than others. We cant just call the Acme Pellet Company and order 10,000 tons. Acme will ship that, and we will have to pay for it.....and I don't know who might have that kind of money just sitting around. Even though its an unpopular fact, dealers don't make big bucks on pellets....there just isn't huge savings to pass on. We try to get folks to buy in the "off " months by bringing in the cheaper Spring product, and passing those savings on. Unfortunately there are other hard costs of doing business that has to be covered as well....

"noone really needs pellets" pretty much defines how poorly you understand the customer base. There are many people who rely SOLELY on pellets.....they've let their oil tanks run dry, removed gas storage, etc. This isn't a small aberration, but quite common. Tell these folks you cant get pellets for 2 month, you wont see them shrug and say, "oh well"....quite the opposite. Its bad enough when you run out of their favorite brand!

I hope things turn around, I really do. It usually quiets down by the end of November, unless there is a shortage, and then it goes into full panic mode....time will tell.

 

I remember friends asking me when i got my Pellet stove 5-6 seasons ago, "why do you still have your oil furnace"?
my answer has always been, " Pellets stove might go on the blink [usually in single digit temps] or,
may have a problem getting pellets.." doesn't cost anything to keep oil in the tank. plus I run it once in a while to keep it alive n kickin...

 

Ah, it certainly does tie up the customers cash. I guess you poorly understand the economics of the average household.

And dont tell me there are plenty of folks that rely solely on pellets. In the example you gave, they had other options lmfao. No pellets, fill the oil tank, call the propane company. That may have been the dumbest thing I have ever read. AND it is cheaper than paying through the nose for the per bag price because there is a "shortage"

 

I covered my azz. I have 2 tons of Lacretes coming next week. That will take care of me for this year.

 

You simply cant expect to post provocative things and not expect SOMEONE to rise to the occaision!

Think of tying up cash as an investment......why do so many here buy their pellets ahead of time? To ensure they dont run out, of course, but also to ensure they dont have to pay the higher, mid- or end- of season pellet prices that seem to oddly perk up at that time of year. Are they tying up their cash? Sure.....but THEY see it as an investment. They are reading this post right now, as are you, except they are nodding, and thinking "yup...that's what I do..." and that's what a smart consumer of any product does....basically "have it and not need it, rather than need it and not have it". But cash is a finite resource for.....EVERYONE. A consumer has a couple limits....the cash to buy said product, and the space in which to put it so it lasts. That consumer is the end-user, the dealer, and actually, the producer. Once those limits hit, they are done. The consumer ties up cash, but considerably less cash than the dealer....maybe you think that pellet dealers have an unlimited well of funds to draw from? Five tons of pellets is considerably less in both space and cash than 5 thousand tons. Know any dealers who carry that much?

I have a household, and can say I understand the economics of such. Do you sell pellets? In business for yourself? Didn't think so.

There are plenty of folks who rely solely on pellets. Let your oil tanks run dry.....you likely wont be able to just fill them and start the unit. Filters clog, air enters fuel lines....youll need a serviceman to restart it at a minimum. Gas? Remove the tanks, how long it is gonna take to get new ones? Its cold tonight.

As for the dumbest thing you've ever read, you ought to re-read some of your own posts. Or some of the current political ideal pieces.

 

Shots fired. But I feel u r correct about the $$$$ situation.

 

I'm sorry, but that is just plain irresponsible on the part of the homeowner. I'm not talking specifically about the idea of letting your tanks run dry or having them removed. I'm talking more generically about the notion of thinking one can heat their home exclusively with wood pellets and have no other heat source whatsoever. Back in early 2014 when there was a big pellet shortage (the only one I remember) - it was well covered in most media outlets. Chris at VWP did an article with VPR called "Where did all the pellets go". There was TV coverage, newspaper articles, etc. Crazy customers were getting rough and tough with store owners. Someone pulled a gun. People were driving hours to the pellet store and waiting all day for a truck to arrive, etc. There was even a rumor around here that a guy got physical with one of the girls over at Robbins. For crying out loud, use your oil / ng / propane / heat pump / wood stove / kerosene heater / electric heat. Whatever it takes; if you don't have another heat source - then get one. No pellets is not the end of the world, and it's certainly not worth losing your mind over!

 

Lol, I will leave the rely solely on pellets thing alone, there is no debate that you are wrong about that.

And how come its an investment for the consumer but not the dealer lmfao. Its a better inveatment for them!! I would be better off investing that $1000 (other investments)in April and buying in October at the "usual" price. That is what really smart people do with their money.

In order to change the habits the dealer will need to offer a better discount. Scare tactics, real or fabricated will not convince enough of your customers to cure your logistic problems.

And if the problems start at the mills, then there is nothing the consumer can do to help the issue. If there is a shortage there, it will happen regardless of when it is purchased.

And all real shortages will lead to loss of customers in the long run.