will there be a pellet shortage this fall?

I am going with northern warmth super spruce. Upton doesnt have much on the ground and there has been no build in product there. Which is different then every othe year. So either they went to on demand manufacturing or there isnt that much of northern warmth around. Also local retailer who has carried them doesnt have them listed on their site. Cue the “sales are up 100% and we just cant keep the product on the ground it goes that fast”

 

Well, sorta useless then dont ya think?

 

to you maybe....

 

I am pretty sure to everyone else as well.
It sounds to me, one particular supplier of yours is having trouble supplying product for whatever reason. Not industry wide. And since you are telling folks to buy now. You must currently have plenty of stock of other brands. And i highly doubt this one supplier sold out in the traditional sense. As in they are selling as fast as they can make at full scale.

 

our early buy is may-july.....in auguest-september, our prices have already risen to the point we cannot pass on any real savings

 

A statement of a possible shortage doesn't make that statement "sorta useless". I am simply trying to communicate an issue so that the folks who wait to order aren't left in a lurch.....I'll not divulge confidential sources of information just so you can micro analyze the situation...sorry.
As for industry-wide, whether there is a shortage or not, and certainly that would be a local phenomenon, and, well, I *think* I am in a better situation to comment on that than you might be...maybe not, but probably so....do you deal with multiple suppliers every day? I do. Do you sell and distribute pellets every day? I do. Enlighten me, please, into the "in" you have in the supply chain that I don't have.
How much stock is "plenty"? When one supplier says they cant supply product, it puts pressure on all other sources. How much do you think a retailer can afford to "put on the ground"? Given the unknowns of future cold and demand, how much are retailers willing to invest in a low profit, highly volatile priced, product?
I don't sell pellets to the GREAT majority of folks here....and while some people do know who I am, I don't come here, advertising my company, brand, or services. I really have no financial incentive in posting here, so......its also the reason I didn't mention brand name above. Why create a panic? Just trying to warn folks....I don't want people to wait until its too late to get their product, or pay more in doing so. (key "Battle Hymn of the Republic" music)......
Sorry, IHP, if this comes off as antagonistic....

 

I have to agree. Early buy ended in June.
I'm on schedule for about 110,000 tons this year.... and it won't be enough. And, mine is not the brand Lousyweather is talking about. I don't think he carries it as we're not in the same secret cabal.
Now until sometime in November is the busiest time. This is the time of year that truck drivers complain because there's 10 other trucks in line ahead of them to get loaded.

 

You said a lot without saying anything. Potential shortage without details is no better than me saying potential over supply. Which is more likely due to oil prices and projected warmer than normal winter. You have more insight than most. But vague statements are meaningless regardless of who delivers them

 

I hear that...

Dan

 

Maybe I should get into politics??

 

It's as good a time as any!

 

Impressive.

 

Yes, Scot isn't the brand I was mentioning. Yes, we don't carry that product. Yes, he isn't in the secret cabal *wink*.....first rule of Fight Club, Scot.......*wink*

 

Raw material is plentiful inland 150+ from east coast. So much so here , mills are giving it away and/or paying to have it hauled out when it backs up lumber production .
The tariffs caused a lot of logs to be repatriated which will keep raw material in the U.S.
Coal is back in the game .
Nat Gas is cheap.
Propane is reasonable.
No shortage but prices will settle higher due to trucking and labor costs. The longer Europe sucks the east coast dry as far as fiber/raw material , prices will trend higher .
Midwest and inland should see price stability.
Edit: Read an article in a forest products trade mag lately that stated the EPA under the Trump administration is studying and considering a possible subsidy for end of life biomass fiber ( wood destined for the landfill) converted to biomass fuel. Essentially demolition wood recycling . If this happens in the future it could put a lot of material into the fuel stream along populated coasts which could replace virgin fibre going to power plants as it would likely be sourced closer . In the end that virgin fibre could be turned into quality pellets.

 

As usual, excellent info!!!

 

These just showed up at HD .

 

perfect picture! bag covered with water drops …. bag with the warning "must be stored in dry place"