Got it all put away, safe and sound from you pellets pigs out there..... You know who you are! And the pellet inspectors approve.......
Well good and bad news. Been lookin for an extra 15-20 bags to get us through this crappy march and I have missed getting my fix at the TSC 2 miles down the road from my work several times by minutes. A buddy calls and says there are pellets at the local Lowes. My son has my truck and he is close to the store. I call him and tell him to go to the Lowes and get em. NOW. He calls a bit later and says he got 15 bags. The last 15 bags, 2 people were arguing over the 10 bags left. "What kind of pellets " I ask. "Green Supreme" he says. "Urrrhg" I say. But hey my multi fuel will eat em up, I still have 25 bags of Sets if the real cold returns, and I won't have to burn $3.80 a gallon oil. And I guess there was an honest fist fight in the parking lot at that TSC over pellets earlier in the week. Wow. Doggy
I have several dealers tell me there has been fist fights, some pretty ugly name calling and a couple of time the cops had to be called for traffic control. Had a dealer this weekend who only sells pellets, only put on their phone message that they had pellets and would be selling them at 9:30am ...the message was turn off ten minutes later so a crowd would NOT show up and cause problems...They sold out the truck within 30 minutes and there are hundreds of stories like this all over NE... From a manufacture's point of view.......stock up early this spring and summer.....if you normally burn 4 tons, then get 6 and keep buying during the fall and winter so you never get below 2 tons and you will eliminate yourself from future craziness of this sort. Yes I understand that space for some is an issue, but find it somewhere...park the car outside instead of the garage and get rid of that junk you haven't touched in 5 years to make the space if you need it. Budget for the little extra it will cost for that 2 extra tons. Winter comes to NE every year, and will come this year as well again....you do this in the spring/summer, it is much easier for everyone concerned to make this a much more enjoyable process than running around like a chicken with your head cut off, cause you only have 4 bags left and a storm is coming tomorrow night.
Article in BioMass magazine you might enjoy reading about all this shortage stuff.. By Anna Simet | March 06, 2014 Pellet retailers and consumers in some Northeast and Midwest locations have learned a lesson this heating season, as many have run out of pellets and are facing difficulties securing additional supplies. The general consensus amongst pellet producers on what, exactly, that lesson should be is that ordering or buying pellets too late in the season leads to inaccurate demand estimates. Although the winter has been unusually frigid—albeit not the coldest on record—and has upped demand some, pellet producers insist current industry capacity is fully capable of meeting and exceeding market needs. Cory Schrock, plant manager of White Pigeon, Michigan-based Fiber By-Products, emphasized that the shortage has nothing to with lack of capacity. “Most producers aren’t operating at full capacity, but that’s because they aim to supply what the market demands,” he said. “Producers have an average operating capacity of 50 to 60 percent, because that is all the market requests of us. Couple that with one of the coldest and hardest winters on record so consumer usage is up, and skyrocketing propane prices, and consumers have turned to wood pellets.” For most consumers, pellet stoves aren’t primary heat sources, but when propane reaches $3 to $5 per gallon—such as it has in Michigan, which usually sees $1.30 to $1.60 per gallon—most cannot afford to use it, Schrock says, so they turn to their pellet stoves. He adds that consumers in the region have likely doubled their typical consumption this season, jumping from about three tons to close to six tons. Jonathan Kahn, CEO of Strong, Maine-based Geneva Wood Fuels, said the pellet shortage “isn’t a true shortage,” and echoed Schrock’s sentiments that there’s enough production capacity. At least, there is in the Northeast, he said. Kahn agreed that demand has increased from last year, partially due to the unusually cold winter, but also because of more pellet appliance sales. “There were 50,000 new stoves added into the [U.S.] mix this year, though—predominant purchased in the Northeast—so I’d venture that 150,000 to 200,000 new tons of new demand was added,” he said, adding that customers who have bulk delivery set up are not being affected by the shortage, as distributors can accurately plan for their needs. The real issue is that consumers began buying too late this year, from Kahn’s perspective. “It’s been easy to blame the big boxes [retailers], and ask ‘why don’t you have more?”, but it’s a chicken and egg scenario. If more consumers had gone to the stores to make purchases in July and August like they have in previous seasons, then eventually, Home Depot, Lowes, or Wal-Mart would have gotten the message. But they didn’t this time, because they didn’t perceive that their customers needed it. At the end of the day, the customer is the lynchpin—it’s their buying habits, it’s what they do.” And unfortunately, pellet producers can’t risk increasing inventory based on speculations alone; they need assured buyers. “We’re able to produce some inventory and have it sitting there, but we need guidance from the retailers,” Kahn said. “Working capital is very dear, we have to be very precise with our allocations, and we can’t just make 100,000 tons to sit there waiting for the consumer to decide to buy. We feel terrible that there is this frustration on the customer end, but that’s a giant risk.” In the West, Chris Sharron, president of Western Oregon Wood Products, which operates two mills in Banks and Columbia City, Ore., that total 80,000 tons of annual capacity, said he believes there will be a lot more planning for next season, both from the retailer side and the manufacturer side. Due to the spot shortage, his company is taking orders outside of its typical markets, he said, but is being “extremely cautious. The last time we did this, along with other manufacturers in the west, we experienced a bit of a shortage ourselves—albeit very brief. Once we realized the risk to our own markets, we immediately curtailed shipping elsewhere and we were flush again within 30 days.” Like Shrock and Kahn, Sharron noted that there is plenty of capacity in the country, and emphasized that there is not a need for new plants to service the residential market. “Last time, mainstream media exploited the shortage, and it spawned construction of a number of new plants,” he said. “Had the media contacted us or other manufacturers about the brief shortage, they would have learned the reasons and maybe would have reported accordingly. Accurate reporting could have saved millions of dollars of private investment and millions of dollars of taxpayer money, for those plants subsidized with grant monies. Instead, these new plants came on line about a year later, only to realize there wasn’t enough market to support the added production.” He added that the owners of the new plants didn’t call it quits, but were aggressive in trying to gain a piece of the market. “And, of course, the veteran plants were aggressive in protecting market share. This led to price wars, and was happening at the start of the recession. Lumber mills were slowing down and, therefore, generating less byproducts, leading to historically high prices.” As a result of a lack of understanding as to what was truly going on in the market, many of the new plants didn’t survive, and many of veteran plants suffered tremendous losses, Sharron added. A more accurate gauge of what real residential market demand is would be key to better planning, which it all comes down to, according to Kahn. “That’s what the industry needs, and we need to figure it out.” Shrock said he believes some manufacturers, including Fiber By-Products, will up production some this summer to prepare for next season to be like this season. But is next winter likely to be a match for this one, polar vortex and all? “Probably not, and we may end the season with a lot of inventory, you just never know,” he said. “But this year we produced more than what we thought the market was going to need from us, and our retailers are coming back and saying ‘we need more,’ and it’s too late for that. I can’t tell you enough that the shortage is not because of capacity, but the circumstances of this season. It caught everybody off guard.”
If there is a surplus, Many will over stuff JIC after the shock of this season. I doubt they will wait until the seasons starts next year! I have a feeling there's going to be a lot more pellet pigs come next fall! But if there is? We could see some selling the over stock at a reduced rate. Saw it in 08's after math. So it may happen again. I have to make some extra room in the stash, JIC!
2008 was another over the top year....but there have been WAY more stoves sold since then...granted there is more supply now than then also. I'm not aware of any pellet manufacture that has offered any discounts to dealers for the spring. Not saying there won't be any, since the dealer normally sets there own pricing, but it's usually a reflection of the discount that the mill passed on to them for continued sales into the spring/summer months... Don't see that being a problem at this point...our order file is solid thru Aug, so there is no incentive for us to give a discount with demand the way it is.
This year I put up a Shelter logic shed and had almost 4 tons bought. Probably didn't buy as many loose bags as I ususally do this year, but I figured I'd have enough with an almost 4 ton start. I usually use 3-3 1/2 tons. I will not have many, if any bags left and I think next year I will start with about the same, but will buy bags earlier and more often. I will play the same game, big purchase in Aug. 2-3 tons and then look for a good ton or so in Sept. Oct. time frame. This extra storage should make things easier, but I don't want multiple tons sitting around all spring and summer. Schoondog
Doug, Although I don't burn pellets (yet) I always enjoy and appreciate your posts as it is interesting to me to get a glimpse of your industry. Gary
Just saw this article in the local rag (a few people call it a newspaper ). It figures that the day AFTER I call that HD, they had pellets. http://www.recordonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20140311/NEWS/403110334
This is interesting… "Like Shrock and Kahn, Sharron noted that there is plenty of capacity in the country, and emphasized that there is not a need for new plants to service the residential market. “Last time, mainstream media exploited the shortage, and it spawned construction of a number of new plants,” he said. “Had the media contacted us or other manufacturers about the brief shortage, they would have learned the reasons and maybe would have reported accordingly. Accurate reporting could have saved millions of dollars of private investment and millions of dollars of taxpayer money, for those plants subsidized with grant monies. Instead, these new plants came on line about a year later, only to realize there wasn’t enough market to support the added production.” Inaccurate and poorly researched news stories and wasted taxpayer money… sounds real familiar.
thing is, some folks feel that ordering in October is "early".......folks....."early" is April-May.......
These Greene Teams are burning great for me! Great heat and not a lot of ash, these are about the same as the Barefoots as far as I can see. I'll keep my eye out for these in the future.....
