Currently have an order file thru August (sold out in July/Aug)....my guess there will be no excess right thru this year....Every manufacture, dealer and a healthy portion of the public are out, or down to fumes....not everyone, but the vast majority, which means that just about everyone has to restock and that won't just happen in one or two months. Could be wrong on this, I have been in the past (just asked a couple of ex's), but my educated guess on this is sales will be strong for several months as the supply/demand balance gets back to normal.
Just oinked up PTL's this morning at HD....was hoping they were Blazers!!! They had about 12 ton in stock, I hope my man Will got my message today!
I believe you are correct. The ones who got burnt on high prices may buy ahead and those that usually do buy a whole years supply in the off season will buy their usual and prolly a little more which will create more demand. My contacts in the forest product industry are calling for a slow down this summer. Log/lumber exports are already slowing drastically. Right now should be balls to the wall with foreign buyers filling inventories before HOT weather. White woods are the only woods moving right now and that will slow come warmer weather. Mill log decks are varied . Some empty, some full. I predict a long, wet and colder than normal spring which will break up the roads for a longer than normal period. It all boils down to getting raw material from woods to mill to pellet maker. It's not looking good for pellet supplies and/or prices for awhile.
Just got an email alert from Agway. Torrington store has just got 20 tons landed. Don't think there's anyone on the group thats in my region, but thought I'd post it JIC. Who let the pig's out-Who let the pig's out?? I did!!
The rice is already in the pudding! With sustained colder than normal conditions in the major timber producing regions, the frost is in deeper and likely in places it's never been. It will have nothing to do with "if" it is wet or not. Roads will be posted and raw product will be delayed to market. With the snowfall the east coast has seen this winter , count on a wet spring in those areas. A wet spring will just extend "spring breakup", and if sawmills yards aren't full right now, they won't start filling until June/July. All of this won't mean a thing if global lumber demand drops off. No lumber=a highly decreased volume of raw product for pellet mills.
Unless its a log to chip mill like VWP or Geneva. They will just buy the logs from you and make their own fiber. With all this gloom and doom, we should be paying $400 to $450/ton by next fall!
Those low grade logs come from the tops of high value bottom logs. No landowner in their right mind will harvest timber and get paid pulp price for high grade stumpage. There are some mills chipping that source plantation pine for raw product but in no way do/can they make up for what every sawmill produces in waste every day. Pellet quality also suffers when whole trees are used do to less than ideal whole tree debarking tech.
I know, But at least we have pellets. Lower density=lower BTU content. But they still throw heat. Actually the WVP have done a very nice job with log to chip production. Several people have high marks for their product. Geneva's Maine Choice brand isn't that great but they do burn. Geneva's Super Premium isn't half bad. GAP is also chip to log, But there quality has been on a roller coaster for what its worth. And you can still make a couple a bucks on lower grade timber/pulp logs. Puts a little in your pocket if there is nothing else moving.
We all be burning oil or something if that happens. I'd prolly burn some local grown corn with a slight pellet mix.
Nahhh. No landowner is gonna put a crew in a woods to take a few low grade and bangthechit outta his standing high grade for a few bucks. Won't happen and there's not a forester worth his salt anywhere that will allow it.
I'll be burning pellets and so will you. There is a lot of time between now and this fall. With demand, will come supply. Count on the box stores not letting go of their corner of the market. What may well have an impact is the increase in the cost of oil and oil products due to the continued unrest in the Middle East, Russia etc. Without the loss of so much as a drop of oil the prices can go through the roof. Then we get the "cost of operations" argument.
My max is still $250/ton. $300 if you twist my arm, But they better be good! Unless something really odd happens(no box wars), I still see box store stuff @$229/ton next fall. Once this chit settle's, I'll load up again. Might take till May, But I think once the cold blows over we should see some stock. My box stores carry pellets all season long. Price might rise if the war stops, But they should still be bringing them in. As far as pellet houses go, BT has a posting on their site. Unlike CT pellet they aren't turning new business(customers) away. They also have not raised prices much, Where CT pellet has! I like Scott, But this time of year he does seem to inflate things. Sorry Scott, Just my honest opinion! List of prices from BT Ambiance Super Premium Hardwood $275 Energex American $260 Logik-e Super Premium Hardwood Pellet $285 Dry Creek $275 Energex Canadian Blend $275 O'Malley's $255 Hamer "Hot Ones" Super Premium $295 Maine Woods Price: $255 North Country $270 Wood Pellet Co. Price: $265 Cubex Premium Hardwood $295 Barefoot Pellets OUT OF STOCK Spruce Pointe $280 Quote from Scotts site CT pellet prices. Maine's Choice $259/Ton North Country $269 Currently Unavailable Hamer's Hot Ones $320 Currently Unavailable Barefoot $320 Currently Unavailable Energex American $289 Okanagan Black Hills $319 Currently Unavailable Okanagan $319 Currently Unavailable Dry Creek $249
