Blazer (West Oregon Wood) closed their doors this week

Same deal here. Kept the stove for backup and still hooked to its own flue. Used to get lots of free wood and had 25 acre's to pick a tree here and there from. Bought picker loads to CSS. Once the inlaws sold off the farm we bought wood of the market. Never did get correct seasoning. No room for more than 5 cords in and 3 out without hoggin yard space.

Once the kiddo was born, We needed a more constent heat source(steady temp). So bought the pellet eater. Used some wood on the nights weekends to assist. So I have 3 heat sources if needed. Liked the ease of pellet far better and steady temp was dandy too!!

Love the hunt too. Plus trying them out is loads of fun. I might even get carried away with that part!

 

We already did. I got almost 2 seasons in the kitty. Now the boxes are flushing their stuff out which might effect the pellet dealers spring buyz.

Oil is tickin up, But still below where pellets can draw the tank fillers back in the game.

I would expect the next couple a seasons to be a bit interesting! But it is the game many of us here are used to and got our stuff sorted or so I would hope!

 

I don't think your gonna have a problem getting them for some time now. There are mountains about and area's are flooded/swamped or what ever.

Yes the switch turns on and off quickly. But even with a quick flip(oil price rockets) there is at least a solid years supply stuck in many mills lots/warehouses unless they turn them into horse bedding, Or sell em to the oil industry as clean up sludge suckers. I almost bet you and a few other pellet retailers have quite a bit in your yards as well.

The price of the juice controls this game more than many realize!! Until the tank fillers return or something strange happens rather quick I don't see the piles dropping all that quickly. At least my area isn't. Even the Lowes flush sale hasn't made much of a ripple in their inventory.

Western mill issues rarely effect Our region. We will miss them venturing over here, But I doubt they would effect of market much. I'm sure the east mills don't miss them one bit and can pick up the slack no problem. The stuff that made it here was a piece of their pie going some where else!!

I had some chats with some reps. They are down but not out just yet. The one that looks to be in the worse shape is VWP...... Hate that they are in a pinch. But all the mills will need to adjust if something doesn't change. Product has to be market competitive or you won't sell any sort of volume.... All industries has gone through this and some how got stronger or leaned out to keep a float.. There has to be a side venture to keep the plants going if making pellets at lower competitive pricing isn't an option!! Saw dust and chips are used for many things these days. Got to be something they can convert or manufacture it into.

Yes, He's been rather quite. But he did state we were useless to him here. So I kind of don't really miss him!! Franky not much at all!!

But I do wish he can keep his head above water in these tough times.

 

I have heard rumors that some mills are sitting on better than half their total capacity. So a mountian would be like 50k(yes thousand) tons for a big 100K mill. I heard Wow had over 20K on their lot before they closed.

We need more spies to visit mills to show some pic's of the piled ware!! Maybe not, It might scare us!!

I can't always get the answers you might. As I always seem to get smoke blowed up my azz. Most Reps and retailers seem to be sayin oil had little effect on their sales and the boxes sell off didn't effect them either. I say BS to that and think they are all full of it. They all blame it on the warm weather mostly!! So with that I'm betting 50% of them(the pellets) are sitting somewhere(if they didn't find other means to move them). So roughly 50% will need to be moved out before they can begin again. That's 50% of last season in the stream we can feed off of.

Funny, Thats about what I expect an honest retailer to say. Would you say oil's cut of the sales was at least 30% and warm weather took the other 20%. That kind of what I made of last season. But just a lame guess!! I won't even go where the boxes have cut in. Specially with the clearance deals happening!! Or low NG prices. IMHO that isn't as big an effect as it isn't available like a rolling oil truck is. Rural area's don't have an NG option. Propane also had a finger in the pie...

And if all the retailers are backing down the same as you state(50%) thats less pressure to move these mountains.

We pigs are just a small number of the total burners. But We here have stuffed next season in and a good portion of the next after. That's almost 2 seasons that us small percentage will not be in the game unless we are enticed to refill. So even less market pressure there, even if its just a small percentage

If you wanted to corner more or raise your sales, What would you do? Would you try to adjust pricing to compete or sit and hope the market changes back in your favor?

 

One would think the mills would settle the price down so the retailer can lower them to compete. Waiting for the change will not move goods from the mill to you and to the end user.

I was never good at comparing pellets to oil. But have seen $250 pellets to like $80/bbl??

 

Who says were guessin?



Oops, I did and it was a lame one at that!!