The only way I envision a shortage is if oil shoots way up. My feeling is all these pellets that just got bought up at the boxes were folks like us that just did their Early buy specials stock up in Feb and will not be in the market come spring or fall.
That makes sense to me , I'll still be in the market , just won't need as much and can be more selective of price and brand .
I just looked at the calendar about 50 days till April , I'll burn about 75 bags with 2 stoves so I'll keep buying the $3.99 bags I'll overstock , but they won't spoil
More on the lines of what I was getting at... I just cannot see the BBS NOT making some adjustments... And then... "if" it gets really cold, early, or "if" oil etc. does go up, yeah... there will be some issues... Last year they under bought, there were shortages in the fall, this year they over bought.. Henry and I were just talking about this today, and we both feel next year sales will not be as good.. (across the board) Mostly, because many that bought early, bought what they usually do. And as witnessed here, have not used them all up. And "if" oils stay low, as now, that will hurt too.. VERY unlikely the cost of pellets will drop enough to be competitive, I'd say 99% impossible. Gotta leave that 1% "just in case"... Dan
Shout out to Somerset pellets again , feed rate 70 % , 450 degrees through glass , 320 from vents . 73 beautiful degrees upstairs
HD here in Lower bucks dropped down to 199.00 few weeks ago. they were up to the're greedy eyeballs in stove chows and [Old Roy's] Nation's choice. Interesting on what the price will be this coming Sept/Oct.. since people waited it out this year they might not start off at the 269.00 rip off they did this year. might not want people waiting until they drop prices like this year. Then again I'm voting for Trump so what do I know for sure..
No crystal ball here... wish we did... It's just going to be a crap shoot next year.. I don't know ANYONE that has a genuine clue on it. It just sucks so bad, that when people like all of us here, find a way to heat a little easier, and a little cheaper, then some crap comes along and screws it all up for us... The local media keeps harping about how much we are all saving on gas and oil... That's awesome... I save about 20 bucks a month on gas. But I'm losing my butt on my retirement monies.. They don't talk about that so much...
The distribution air that blows out of the stove doesn't go through the firebox, it goes through the heat exchanger. It is a closed loop. It doesn't affect the temp in the firebox at all.
Like those that posted before me, I agree there is a good chance we see a shortage next year due to the BB's buying less than last year. I also don't think we'll see the low prices here in northern NE like they are in southern NE and beyond. I plan on being fully loaded early again next year and buy during the season as price and supply dictates.
I was burning until the end of June last year - so that April chit don't mean squat to me. However, I still have close to 3 tons., so am in good shape. Will be loading up as/if I can as prices drop. May even have to stick a couple tons outside and put a party tent over them or something to ensure I don't get caught by shortages next year.
I don't believe that the BBS stores (or the pellet guys, for that matter) over priced product this year to make a killing at the expense of the consumer. I know I certainly didn't. The BBS $199 price tag on some stock is not the price they should have been charging with a normal margin, it is a loss leader, knee jerk reaction to clear it. combine that with all the damaged product they have to toss and spend hours sorting and re-stacking. It will be interesting to see what they bring in next year, but it should be much less. We saw new pellet mills start-up, and others ramp up their output to meet the demand of the last two years at the same time as oil has dropped and a mild winter passes in most of the country. I believe some price adjustments downward will need to come from the suppliers at the same time as they reduce output. that will be hard for them to do. margins will remain tight for all the middlemen, from the BBS to the pellet guy. the remaining stock from this year, bought at higher prices, will sell at less than what anyone would consider a healthy margin. just my opinion, i could be way off.
I personally don't like to buy pellets that have been kept outside for any length of time. In my search for pellets I look for mills that have warehouses and the same with the vendors I'll purchase from . I'll also search the BBS for an occasionally deal and cherry pick their on floor pallets .
