when in 2015 to buy heating oil?

we dont burn much oil at all but i would like to have a reserve in case i am not around for some reason or another to be loading the wood boiler. some is 400 gallons i would like to buy before next winter.
historicly, it is ussually at its cheapest around july 4th so i have always bought that weekend as its easy to remember. this was not the case last year. it continued to drop to about $2.15 and then went up the begining of the year. it is now back down to $2.21 in my area.
some articles i have been reading state oil may continue to drop until the begining of summer and then go up. something about there not being much more storage in the US but then switching over to making gas for summer. and dont expect it to be this low again ever. im not talking about saving much money here, but i dont need a lot of oil, and especially not for another 6 months.
so does anybody have any insight/thoughts?
my default is to keep track of it almost daily and as soon as i see it bump back up in price then order.

 

I'd get it now while its still reasonable, who knows what the future will bring.

 

Buy when cheap. I am on the same oil rollercoaster. After last year, anything under $3.40 is a steal to me. Prices here are between $2.50-2.70ish.

Not to mention the endless winters in the Eastern Midwest/Northeast.

 

I think the lowest price is likely to be Fall again this year, but buying a hundred gallons now would be a good hedge against being wrong.

 

+1 Cost averaging

Buy the minimum for delivery , when it gets cheaper, buy more.
See prices going up, get'r filled fast.

 

any reasons to back your thoughts?

 

I usually buy propane in May and at the end of September.

 

Thats $12 difference for a fill up. Not a deal breaker.
That price is rather reasonable considering the average over the last 6 years.
And we are only one good bombing away from those ridiculous again...
Get it now! And don't look back. Unless, of coarse, the price goes way up

 

that would be the least stressful way to go about it!

 

You have no way of knowing where the price will go. You can only know where the prices are and what will affect them in the future. Do I think we've seen the lowest prices? No. Evaluate the upside vs downside risk. So if you buy 400 gallons tomorrow for $2.25 and the price drops to $1.75, you just lost $200 right? Well, it all depends. If you have additional storage capacity, you can take advantage of the $1.75 price as a hedge against future rises. If you buy now at $2.25 and it goes to $2.75, you'll be happy that you saved $200.

I agree with buying some now and then seeing where the market goes. Heating oil companies generally charge less if you buy in bulk. In the above example, you may have saved $0.15 per gallon buy buying 400 gallons instead of 100 gallons. But that $0.15 gets eaten up quick if the price drops a lot (as we've seen in the last 8 months).. I'd suggest that you buy half of what you need now and half at some later time. In the above example, you mitigate both upside and downside risk (losing $100 if it drops or saving $100 if it goes up).

Factors affecting prices now.

OPEC (specifically Saudis not cutting production until everyone else does)
Supply glut in Cushing, OK.
Colder than normal winter in Northeast.
Decent Economy.
Global supply fears with turmoil in Mid East.
Strong Dollar (driving all commodities lower)

Be glad that you didn't top off the tanks in September of last year at $3.50 per gallon and start to plan for the future now.

 

I think the price of crude is going to stay in the $40-$60 range for at least another year.
I really don't think diesel/hho prices are going to drop that much more.
Freight demand will probably stay flat as the economy.
Which leaves seasonal farming and heating demands.
Pretty much leaves one short opportunity in the Summer and another in the Fall for a glut/price drop if we don't have late harvests and an early Winter heating season.

I bought in November @$2 and again in March @$2.75
( topped off the tanks in November, only half tanks in March )(2 houses)

 

$235.9/gallon here today.
2.21 looks good

 

i know im not saving much and i do like the idea of splitting. i could break it into 2 or 3 deliveries oF 200gal (2x330 tanks are about empty), current price of $2.23 with thier price breaks for quantity. likely do one when tax return comes, another the day i notice price going back up, and possibly a third is it dips low again in the fall. thanks guys!

 

tax return came. oil down to $2.14, will put order in tomorrow.

 

right now here price of heating oil is about 2.45. I bought in February at 2.21. OK I got a degree in finance so keeping this simple, because I can over explain things. because the USA cannot ship raw crude out (stupid law) only refined product and there is a glut of crude in market storage is at a minimum. lowest price in futures market given time to hit suppliers should be June. now remember the only buyer of raw crude in the world is a refinery. they should drop price if spring hits as it looks it has.
more over call your suppliers mine give a 30 cent discount on volume drop 400 gallons or so because the truck are not fuel efficient and CDL, drivers up here with a haz, endorsement make 25 an hour.
if you got more questions feel free to ask..

 

you're talking $120 off a fill of 400 gallons? Never heard of a discount like that

 

my oil guy says it saves him money! call and ask.. think of it their way drive 60 miles 4 hours in 1 day to deliver 4 separate 100 drops.... truck expense wages etc or 1 drop... why I put in 2 oil tanks..

 

Hi coalreaper
What is your price break for quantity?

 

I can double check tomorrow but if i remember:
$2.16 for 150-200gal
$2.14 for 200-400gal
$2.12 for 400-800gal
$2.10 for 800+gal
Less than 150g was like $2.50 or something like that.

 

I'm in the camp that you cant predict the price of crude, but I also think it's a matter of time before they jack us again. Buy it now is my vote.