Looks like your January count may have been accurate given your February usage. I reference this site on occasion just to see where we stand relative to previous years with respect to heating degree days. For my location, this has been the second coldest winter in the previous 10 years with only 2018 being slightly colder. Weather Data Depot: free downloads of heating & cooling degree days Oh. And I have burned one bag this season so far.
That is an intersting site, thank you. 2018/2019 was worst by far (too bad it doesn't go back to 2013 or 2014 as I believe they were the worst I've experienced since I moved to this house). And it shows in my data as I had used 218 bags by the end of February (and used 1 bag shy of 6 tons) 2017/18 is the second worst (of the entire seasons presented)and by this time I had used 201 bags. This season is following that graph pretty closely, and has just surpassed the 17/18 season so is currently showing 2nd placem but if it warms up, that could change. Neither of those years did I have a mini split, so none of my "shoulder season" heating would have been by anything other than pellet stoves.
Warm enough for "fair weather me" to go out and stick the oil tank. 90 gallons left from 216 at the start of February. More left than expected!! Only bummer is I have a 10% coupon burning a hole in me pocket and pellets to fetch. But no storage room now that the shed blew over! I suppose I could get a big tarp to cover them. $269/ton isn't a shabby deal even for meh pellets with today's prices.