Residential Solar

bogieb Great thread!
As you know I also will be trying to get mini splits this year
Conversation with my beautiful bride…
Her I want mini splits
Yes dear
Her it will save us $
Yes but how many separate heating and cooling systems does a house need at minimum $6,000 a piece to save $$

currently looking at bids

 

I haven't had to pay a bill since last March (Feb. 2022 cycle). Since then, solar production or credits with the utility have paid everything including the ~$14 base charge. I'll definitely have $$ left over by the time March rolls around. Then I'll have to decide if I want a pay out or to roll it over.

Getting a pay out seems like it should be the way to go to get interest on it (not that it would amount to much). But, with electric rates so low until the next rate change, I won't bank nearly the $$ this summer that I did last year even if it is much sunnier that 2023. So, if electric prices double next August, as they did in 2022, then rolling it over would help ensure that I still wouldn't actually pay a power bill.

Unfortunately I don't have a crystal ball so it's all a guessing game.

 

In Missouri the credits don't offset the base meter connection fee. They can roll over to the next month. I believe they roll over for a 12 months before the credit expires. It's the primary reason I suggested they not size the PV array any bigger. They can never make money to offset base connection with initial kw usage. Ideally they would only pay for meter connection. In reality, if you don't understand generate and pay a bit every year one would be giving away electricity to the utility. Any bigger array and their payback period would have taken longer and return on investment would have been lower.

Their simple payback was 7-8 years. I think they have had it about that long. Dad wanted battery backup but he got a whole house generator/welder cheaper. The generator has only been needed twice. Both this year. After a summer tornado and after a winter storm. 1-3 days without power. Generator runs on forklift propane tanks right now.

 

I can tell you that the mini split is much cheaper to run than my old propane boiler FHW system. Of course, I pay a huge price for propane where some months I was paying $1k+/month to keep my small house (main floor only) at 64*. Since I replaced the 30 year old boiler with a high efficiency combi-boiler, I haven't used it for heat, but I'm sure it is a bit more efficient. Also, don't want to use it much since I replaced the 500 gallon propane tank with two 100 gallon tanks either - but at least it is now a more viable option if I need it.

 

Let the $'s stay where they are another year. Then, redeem cash from your 1st year, leaving the 2nd year's $'s to cover any increase charges. Stay one year behind.

 

I'm not sure it works that way. I think it is all or nothing, but I could be wrong. But yeah, if possible I think that is a good method.

 

^ Each state/municipality can run solar programs differently, and they do. Where I am we run excess credits earned April through March and they reset year by year.
The particulars are uninteresting to say the least but the idea is essentially to help owners generate excess credits during the summer to help offset the diminished generation during the winter. If at the end of the year anyone has remaining credits they're converted to a payout at the rate of a wholesale generator which is something on the order of 1 cent per kWh, far less than we purchase at.
By and large the net metering we have is pretty good. Might just be because I'm used to it but it seems the most fair for a residential array like we have.

I've probably posted this more than a few times in this thread.

 

And that is why on a couple of solar sites I visit some people yell SCAM for net metering and say nobody should net meter. They can't envision that some states/municipalities have decent or even good net metering, so they tell everyone to stay away.

Unfortunately some people don't research into how it would work for their specific circumstance, so get super bitter about it. It would be nice if every representative for a solar install company laid out everything for them, but that isn't the case. At the same time, if you are going to lay out a large chunk of change, I don't know why you wouldn't educate yourself on at least the basics.

On another note, just got my Q3 SREC payment for 2023 for 3 mwh, can't complain about that.

 

I have seen some of them in here.

 

I think some unscrupulous solar salespersons for example; selling $50,000 systems with paybacks in 7 years. What they did too me!
Simple math says that needs to make more than 7K a year (before counting & tax credits you qualify for)

This doesn’t pass BS test; causes some to put up warning flags to try and help..

I was interested in bogieb results because similar latitudes and weather patterns

 

Sending out these salesmen to people's homes who just look at your roofline from a google maps view is the biggest crock of sh## because these people are using dollars and cents to convince you to hand over your hard earned money for the next several years and then you become a figure on their balance line and nothing more.
This is the wrong approach for so many reasons... among such: just looking at someone's roofline doesn't consider angle or shade interruptions from surrounding geography like hills / land features /trees- doesn't consider the true orientation of the home towards due south, and has nothing to do with your particular energy needs.
Someone in Northern NH or ME is going to have different electrical needs than me in Southern CT. Plus it doesn't consider something like this- before my solar install my upstairs where my bedroom was could reach almost 110F on a hot day with the windows closed. With the panels on the roof interrupting the sun hitting the roof directly, lower 90s all other variables being the same. Some of the same sales people don't inform people in my neck of the woods that a solar install increases the value of the home on a 1:1 dollar basis. $10,000 array- home value goes up by $10,000. $35,000 array- home value goes up by $35,000. What are the tax implications for those folks? Here in CT it's not incorporated into the taxable value of the property, it could be different in other states.
People who are interested unfortunately need to "shop around" and talk with a professional who has technical knowhow not a slick sales pitch. Personal experience- I sat down with the technician at my house and explained my long term goal was to move some appliances over to electric, add central air and eventually get an electric car. Those were my goals- not right for everyone- but that's what I wanted. We talked about the components my system would need, how I can "make room" electrically by moving to LED lights, replacing my Plasma TV (which really doubled as a space heater in the living room) and getting my Flinstone's era refrigerator updated to something from this century. Little things add up.

These salespeople really get me going because it's like "ok- I need a car to commute to work" - and they're trying to sell you a lifted F250 diesel. Some people might actually need that. Some people might be way better off with a Honda Civic or a Toyota Corolla. Right tool for the right job.

Also- many systems are nearly modular. Once the inverter is set up, you can within the specs of the system add panels to the system. My wife and I have plans to do a front porch on the house when the kids are out of day care- we're looking at adding approximately 10 panels for an electric car for her. (I have a plug-in hybrid currently and my wife might consider one). Who knows-

I personally happen to think that the solar technology that's out there right now is good. It's a developed and proven technology. It has been almost unchanged since the 70's. The improvements have been around the edges and have made some incremental improvements in efficiency but on balance there hasn't been a monumental leap that would have been worth waiting for. Even a modest system should prove to be financially beneficial all things considered.

Anyhow- I'd better calm down before I need to get on a blood pressure medication.
I just feel really bad for people who are trying to make move that really could be in their long term financial interest and there's these dingdongs trying to upsell them into a bloated system that doesn't benefit the consumer. Actually makes me mad.

 

But it sounds like you have done the research.

 

Huge residential place around here just folded up "Vision Solar", I know many that went with them and have panels from them on their roofs. I believe my sister is one of them!

Vision Solar faces lawsuits from customers in residential market

 

I won't deny that some (and maybe most, depending on where you are located) are unscrupulous and are "overoptimistic" in their calculations. I ran into some of those. The company I went with was very straightforward in acknowledging upfront that it would take 15 or more years for a ROI - which I had already calculated out on my own anyway, so that was a good start on their part.

A few things that helped ensure I was happy with my decision

1. Research, research, research. I spent 2-3 months just researching thru blogs and company websites. No, I wasn't getting into technical specs, I was just getting used to language and getting understanding of shading (which I have), what questions to ask, what services I should expect, and red flags. Since I have shading issues, thru that research I found that I needed to look at what type of inverters I should expect to be quoted (mini inverters on each panel versus 1 inverter for each array). Mini inverters will cost more to begin with, but allow for max possible production even when some panels are shaded.
2. Researching tax credits, state rebates (none for NH at the time), and tax implications for property taxes so you know the true, long term cost. Some towns allow for exemptions of $x increase in property value (my town is up to $30k - others don't exempt any amount)
4. Researching how long a company has been in business and what their BBB score/complaints record is.
5. KNOWING your property. This is huge if you have shading issues or an unconventional roof and/or orientation. And with that knowledge, ADVOCATING for your circumstances. I would not be nearly as happy with my solar if I had just gone with all the companies saying just to install on the east and south sides of my roof. I KNEW my west(ish) side would be a great performer late spring thru fall. I accepted that during winter that side wouldn't be very good because of sun angle (it has outperformed my expectations).
6. Not going with a slick sales pitch. I immediately knew that I wasn't going to go with one company when the guy came out, looked up at the roof and said it was good. He said he had so much experience he didn't need to get up there. He also showed up with a quote (actually 2, for different sized systems) and a big-azz spreadsheet telling me that I would be making 250kwh in the winter months with 14x400w panels. That was plain BS and I knew it. Maybe if I didn't have shading issues, and my roof wasn't flatter it could get there, but that wasn't happening in my circumstances.
7. Going with the company that gave me "bad news". They shouldn't be afraid to point out issues and downfalls - shading, roof orientation, long ROI etc. That is called managing your customers expectations.

Unfortunately we want to trust people and be very optimistic on expected outcomes, so we have to fight our feelings (and endorphins - those go sky high when we think we are really going to make out) and reduce it to facts when we are dealing with a large purchases.

 

I just figured out my current ROI. Originally it was around 14.3 years (after the 30% tax credit brought the total cost to $18,053). Actually, at the time I signed the contract it would have been longer because I got the quote when the tax credit was still showing as either 22% or 24%. My assumption at the time was 15-16 years.

If I take usage from meter read dates 12/01/21 thru 10/31/22, it equals 5,026 kwh at a cost of $1,259.

So let's say usage and prices haven't changed (although usage has gone up using the minisplit instead of pellet stove for heat). And let's take my March 1, 2023 thru Feb 2, 2024 readings.

My 3/1/22 bill was $35 but I haven't owed since then. For ease of calculations, lets say that $35 is equal to the amount of pellets I didn't have to buy for this winter (it is way under, but that is okay).

Basically I saved paying for $1,259 for electricity in the last year. I expect to have around $300 overage (perhaps more) with the utility company once the arrays start producing more than I pull (March). And I made $108 is SRECs (they run 6 months behind, so I only got 2 payments).

Roughly the system has "made" $1,667 in the last year. So just like that, my ROI is down to 10.8 years.

 

^^^ those representation I believe

 

Oh no! You didn't just go down that path, did you? Someone is going to get their panties all twisted up and start swearing again!

That is precisely why I haven't gone with solar here. Something about spending $60K+ just to save $125 a month doesn't add up

 

Pretty simple math. That's a 11.764705882352941 ROI without accounting for potential increases in energy costs. The average ROI in Michigan is 9 to 12 years, (hey, SIRI) for something that has a life expectancy of 25 to 30 years makes sense. Now if you're not gonna be around that long or have to finance because you don't have the cash then it might not make sense.
Lucky for me the payback here was 4.7 years. 10 years for batteries and I forget the possible battery life.
</cussing>

 

125 a month x 12 months equals $1,500 a year..
Your simple math confuses me..
So 20 years is $30,000 not paid off yet

Need return of capital BEFORE
Return on investment

Adding insulation is almost always positive ROI