good points, Save, but the thing is, even though us salespeople might say there may be a shortage, (and in some cases undoubtedly self-serving, for sure), don't forget that ALL year, EVERY year, we have to watch supply and demand, whereas the typical casual user simply does not, and frankly, has little or no insight into what's happening on the supply side at all. Now, I feel fairly comfortable in the fact that very few, if any, of my own customers actually read this forum, so, frankly, have very little to gain by mentioning that I feel there is a shortage, and seemingly rabble-rousing here. One can try and rationalize the price consistencies of oil versus pellets, and that's fine, but I don't feel you can say that the issues we seem to be having recently in the Middle East are seemingly going in a stabilizing and positive direction....ie: ISIS, Israel, Gaza, the Ukraine, etc.....here's the thing; that oil price can skyrocket seemingly overnight, and by that logic, so can pellets. A few of the things I've mentioned earlier still are valid: 1. The US is exporting considerably more product than EVER before, depressing the amount of pellets available here 2. Considerably more pellet users out there every year, increasing the demand 3. Not enough pellet mills being built to cover the supply needs mentioned above meh, my 2 cents, from my little pond
That says volumes about both the pellet brand and dealing with SIB. There is no way that @SmokeyTheBear would go back for more unless those pellets were good pick'en.
Yes indeed, many factors and perspectives. My brothers stated selling stoves and pellets in the fall of 2008. He stayed in it 3-4 years, then got bought out. Anyway, it was an eye opener. Still have family in stove and pellet sales, but not management. My brother never did the volume you talk about. I don't think he ever had more than 70 stoves in inventory at any one time. Never saw more than 20-30 tons of pellets at one time. Lack of space. Just took frequent deliveries. Back then, no pellets sat around more than a couple days. The business my other family member works for has more than I can count. Also has better stoves. Last season shortage was a bit of fun for me. I had all the pellets I needed, but HD was bringing in all different brands of pellets. I had my new stove then, so that gave me the chance to try out other brands. What I found was some have more ash than others, but my stove didn't care. I set the stove to what I wanted and it delivered. Unlike my other stove, this stove didn't mind any of the pellets I fed it. Now I can buy any pellets that don't have a horrid reputation, and look for the best deal. I'm warm. I save money, and I like that!
Yes, he is. He works hard for every cent. Some folks got peed off at him once when he couldn't deliver what he was promised to get, but mostly it seemed that the customer didn't want to work it out. He will bend over backwards to make things right. If I called him tomorrow, he would set up a delivery date and would be there as arranged. For me, it is COD. I prefer it that way.
This debate seems to be centered around the theory of upside risk versus downside risk. If one was to pull the trigger and purchase pellets at $239 a ton, there is a risk that they will be available in the future for less. The question is how much less? $219? $209? $199? Pellets will not go to $0 and will likely not be below about $175. If one is to wait for lower prices, the upside risk is that they will go to $259, $279 or as happened last February, not be available at all in which case one would have to rely on another source of heat... When considering the comparative cost of fuel oil, propane or electric the equivalent may be $400-600 per ton of pellets. Pellets are a commodity. Since they are solid, they are easier to store than heating oil but not as easy to store as a commodity that can be left out in the weather. As such, those who have the ability to take advantage of changes in market conditions can benefit. Say one burns 5 tons per winter on average. So the goal is to have 5 tons on hand (after last winter maybe +20%) at the beginning of the season and take advantage of price fluctuations during the season. If one purchases at $239 and they fall to $199, don't lament your previous purchase, take advantage of the lower prices and stock up!!! As some had said, it provides peace of mind to have next winter's fuel purchased and in the basement/garage. Holding out for a savings that may amount to a case of beer per ton could be too risky given the potential of the supply to get hit hard by an early winter, colder than expected temperatures or panicked purchases based on real or imaginary shortages of pellets..
Thanks, but I can't take responsibility for that.. It was the Woodford Reserve talking at that hour of the night!!!
I buy what works for me and can be delivered. I'm not going to buy a good sized pick'em truck to get pellets into my garage. Everybody has their hind quarters to watch out for. Steve is a decent sort, he currently carries three brands and wishes he could get a couple trailer loads a week more of them at times. The plants are not always the most consistent of providers sometimes shutting down at the worst possible time. He had product all last season it just wasn't always what the customer might have wanted. When he was here Tuesday he had unloaded a trailer load but was delivering almost two trailer loads that day. His son James is apt to be the person you talk to about ordering and delivery these days as Steve is usually all over the place delivering. Pellet prices fluctuate, in 2008 you paid a pretty penny for lousy pellets at times, things have gotten a lot better since. Just don't go trying to rely on big boxes as they are out of sync with the seasons and you can't count on this heating season being the same as last heating season, hope for the best but plan for long cold one. The bear enjoys a nice view out the window on a cold snowy winter's day knowing he can stay where it is warm and not have to get out in it clearing the driveway just to go to the big box to pick up pellets because he has the last bag in the hopper. Now my favorite words out for delivery are on my package tracking notification.
The price around my area ranges from $200 for the not so good stuff, AKA Michigan wood pellets, to $214.50 for Pro Pellets (good stuff IMO), to $249 for Somerset/Uncle Jed (top shelf stuff for this area). Not a huge price difference from last year, about $5-10 a ton more. The box stores aren't stocking much, but they are starting to show up on the floors. All Michigan pellets from what I've seen.
Last years were better than I remember them previously. Still not great, but good enough for shoulder season. If they were $50 less a ton I'd buy a ton just for days when it isn't that cold. The problem is they're priced the same as other pellets which are a lot better, and a majority of the stores around here carry them because the mill is close. It makes sense for the stores to bring them in as shipping must be a lot less and they can sell them for the same price (mill is only about 30 miles from Grand Rapids), but it stinks for the consumers who want variety. And based on the quantity of Michigan pellets that move, most consumers don't know/care. I should know, as it wasn't too many seasons ago that I thought all pellets were created equal.
I had no luck with the Michigans.....quite a lot of ash, somewhat low heat....but, any port in a storm!
Please no storms just yet Lousyweather, still have the garden. The boss says we will be canning this evening.
Lowes on the south side of Nashua NH today. Green Supreme 4.98 per bag or 4.75 by the ton for $237.50. Green Teams were 5.98 per bag and no per ton discount listed.. Doesn't seem like lower prices there..
Lowes here has AWF at 3.98/bag. Not sure about ton price. I have 5 tons of Sets in the shed, and am planning on burning corn as much as possible. Hard to pass up AWF at that price though.
