Stay home, save lives?

Not really.
"A flatter curve, on the other hand, assumes the same number of people ultimately get infected, but over a longer period of time."
Coronavirus: What is 'flattening the curve,' and will it work? | Live Science

 

A flatter curve sure can help lessen the immediate demand on hospitals with a large spike in cases and overwhelm the system.

 

The more chance medical centers have to treat the infected, improves the chance the infected will survive.

Staying home reduces your risk of being infected.

I'm staying home, doing my part to not overload medical centers.

 

The same number of people get infected but lives are saved because the limited amount of hospital equipment is sufficient to handle the flow. Plus all the “normal” people that need hospital services to be made healthy like car wrecks or heart attacks.

So I believe that a flatter curve does save lives.

 

For the curve, the number of infected does not equal the number of deaths and the purpose of flattening the curve is not intended to keep everyone from being infected. Flattening the curve is about resource management.

Suppose 5,000 people suddenly need ventilators for COVID-19 within a 2 week period (not unreasonable since NY has been experiencing 600-900 deaths per DAY just from COVID-19). There are 3,000 ventilators. 2,000 are probably going to die because there aren't enough ventilators to go around (not counting those for whom ventilators don't help). Additionally, that does not leave ventilators for those with other illnesses or conditions - so those people die too. Oh, each person needs 14-21 days on a ventilator for this virus instead of the normal 5-10 days for other illnesses / conditions.

If those same 5,000 people need ventilators at a rate of 500 per week (flattening the curve), then going with the 3 week usage per person, and hey, I'll be generous and add another week for sterilizing them and getting those ventilators back ready for someone else, then only 2,000 ventilators are used in a 4 week period for COVID-19. That leaves ventilators for those with other conditions.

Additionally, ventilators take people to set them up and monitor. So, a whole bunch of people are taken away from caring for other sick people when the curve is steep. And, those health workers work more hours, potentially making more mistakes, which could be cause for concern for patience. If they are run down from massive hours, they are more likely to get sick, which leads to shortages of people (and perhaps more deaths), and it is a viscous cycle.

 

We can't take it for granted that exhausted and overworked doctors, nurses and other first-responders and their families can keep doing this and be willing to risk their lives indefinitely. Out of respect for these folks, we need to do our part and stay healthy for as long as we can.

 

Some aren’t doing their jobs though in “flattening the curve” infected numbers going up but deaths going down, means likely the younger crowd is getting sicker, numbers are going up but the deaths are lowering. Will that mean deaths go higher later as more folks with compromised health issues get exposed? It only works if you follow the rules. Staying at home without venturing into groups is going to get us back to where we need to be. The more people don’t understand that, the longer we have this problem. Re-Outbreaks are happening again. Not worth the risk.

 

Short attention spans.

 

Sheeps?

 

The virus don't care...

 

Nope. I should post these in the funny meme thread but this is getting less and less funny by the minute.

 

Flattening the curve makes this last longer. That's the whole purpose.
The whole reason I posted this is because some people seem to be under the impression that staying home and flattening the curve will eliminate the virus from society.
As long as the numbers are within the capacities of our medical system, there won't be much difference.

 

People are contagious days before they have symptoms, and some infected people never have any symptoms. The only way that would be possible is if we had rapid tests available to everyone at the same time.

 

Since we know that most people don’t show symptoms, we don’t know how many have it because many of our check-point testing/drive through testing are closed. If nobody is getting tested, then the number isn’t exactly confined to the medical system and can in fact be turned away. Flattening the curve will make it last longer but more likely will it not remove itself from the general population soon because there’s hardly a definitive way to know who has it or not.

Also this virus propagates in warm humid climates, as WA is beginning to become that way now. This isn’t the time to spout conjecture just substantiated information that would be important to keep in mind. Since many think its becoming ok to walk around in groups, in public, they are missing the point. I can hand you a clean glass with a gloved hand but once it makes its way down the table, hand over hand over hand, it’s no longer a safe glass. That’s the same reason why public bathrooms are often closed. The amount of people that touch surfaces in there is greatly elevated because that’s where we expect ourselves to become more ‘sanitary’. Our phones are worse in this regard too.

 

This won't be "over" until the vaccine is developed and generally available.

Until then, it's mitigate and contain. Practice good hygiene.

The point of staying home is not to kill this thing off. It's to do your part so the medical community doesn't become overwhelmed because they have exceeded their capacity.

With that stated, there's some restrictions are obviously questionable. IMO

 

The longer a person can avoid getting sick, the better your odds are of recovering, as the medical folks learn more and more about the virus and how to treat it. I learned last week that the 02 saturation rates of sick people can dip dangerously low, without them fainting or gasping for breath.Opinion | The Infection That’s Silently Killing Coronavirus Patients
So it's important to get your 02 levels checked early and often if you get sick.
That's just one example. Another bit of new information is that the drug hydroxychloroquine may do you more harm than good.
My goal is to stay uninfected until a vaccine is available, but realistically I will get it sooner or later. But I'd rather it be later.

 

I just wish fishing were open but at least I’m working on my hunters permit so there’s that I’m looking forward to. Usually when hunting you do that with maybe one two people. Unless really experienced? Fishing off a dock? Not simply distanced enough? All that is closed here. You’re right this is also FAR from over. Looking like another outbreak or continuance in stay at home in the fall....