DOW 20k!!! - the investing thread

I'm not buying individual stocks, and everything I'm buying is long term. It'll be 20+ years before I can withdraw from my IRA. And I still have more to contribute for 2020. If it keeps dropping, I'll keep buying.

 

So like the article recommended.... you have a plan...

 

Best investing advice I ever got was: do your own due diligence and research and stick to the plan that you believe fits your circumstances and convictions.

 

I am going to start nibbling on doing some traditional to Roth conversions....not a lot....but enough to get to the top of my current tax bracket.

 

Good plan, pay the taxes while they are down.

 

Looks like we might have 2 days of back-to-back gains for the first time since mid-Feb. Probably doesn't mean much.

 

I'm glad to see the two days of gains, but I feel the worst is ahead of us not behind us. idk!

 

I agree Knothead especially nasdaq ie smaller companies

 

Any thoughts on how this new (and maybe future additional) stimulus bill will effect the market and future tax rates?

 

Future tax rates have to increase, IMO, they are threatening our government credit rating. I am so unsure on the market right now as I’ve never seen this type of hard to stop.

 

I hope the checks don't take months and months and months to issue. That delay supposedly made the checks less efficacious. The cause and effects will be argued along party lines in most cases but it seems to me I recall last time the value of the dollar dropped and we ended up with a bit of inflation that bit off a bit of value of the stimulus effect.

 

Researchers show that pandemic shutdowns actually helped economic growth after the 1918 Spanish Flu.....I hope the same is true in 2020 with COVID-19.

Pandemic shutdowns actually helped economic growth after 1918 flu

 

Certainly not everybody is going to agree with my take on the macro side of things, and individual situations vary. For example, I am planning for a shorter term investment horizon than someone in their 30s or 40s. I have been defensive in an 80-100% in cash and stable value position since last July because of my own observations and research; and because I want to preserve our ability to retire within the next 1-5 years if our situation calls for it and/or things dramatically deteriorate sooner than later. That being said my wife's 401k is still all in stocks.

The problem we, as a society are still facing, well beyond the next few months, is the weight of debt and leverage in the economy, which was extended steadily, then more ever more dramatically all the while since the Great Recession. It is not called the "everything bubble" for nothing.

In the very short term the fiscal stimulus bill should help to keep the debt markets solvent; and many businesses and households at least somewhat intact for a month or two.

I have come to look at the developed economies as drug addicts which have developed a tolerance - meaning more and more debt is needed to get the same effect - and they suffer severe withdrawal symptoms when the stimulant (low interest rates, QE and fiscal stimulus) is not able to be accessed in greater and greater amounts. I just noted that the market quickly came off the lows when algos factored in the passing of the stimulus bill in the house...another stimulant high!

The Federal Reserves balance sheet is now over 5 trillion dollars, and very well may double fairly soon. Most people are going to face much higher taxes at some point. More and more people are starting to wonder how long it will be before this trajectory negatively impacts our country's credit rating and US dollar reserve status, not to mention further blowing up of the bond bubble.

If you hold assets in the stock market you will still get positive returns over a longer horizon that I am looking at, albeit possibly at lower levels than at the end of the last prolonged cycle. After all, the conjured digital dollar units have to go somewhere, and a lot them will go into stocks. However a severe stagflation, further accentuated by automation, will continue to burden savers, low skilled workers, those on fixed incomes, and our most vulnerable people. One only has to look at the homeless enclaves that have been growing dramatically in size over the last decade, and increasing number people that cannot come up with $400 in cash to cover an unexpected emergency to realize that we were already facing some serious challenges prior to Covid-19 and unprecedented "hard stop."

Me too!

However, I am a little guarded because at that time we were not too far yet from the start of central banking (national credit card), and still had money that was backed by more than a promise to pay.

 

Bought more VTSAX yesterday in addition to $1000 each of CCL and NCLH. I dont like single stocks much but at $8-9 share I figured I could make a nice profit by holding it for a bit. These were $60 ea before the drop. I just hope they dont go belly up before this is over.

 

Good luck with your investments BCB.

 

I bought some VTSAX yesterday too.

 

This is a good time for me to try to get my avg cost down. It was at $81/share. Currently trading at $60 lol.

I'll be buying more as soon as I get more cash available.

 

No RCL ?
In 2008/9 when their stocks dropped I'm pretty sure all three were recovered within two years.
We'll see how fear of cruising compares to no extra money to go on vacation.

 

most of my recent investments have been in VFIAX with some into their wellington fund.

 

Its on the radar. If it dips down to the level of the other 2 ill scoop some up but right now its trading around $25/share.