In loving memory of Kenis D. Keathley 6/4/81 - 3/27/22 Loving father, husband, brother, friend and firewood hoarder Rest in peace, Dexterday

Never trust the weatherman

Discussion in 'The Wood Pile' started by Reloader, Feb 12, 2024.

  1. Reloader

    Reloader

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    [​IMG]
    Since I’ve retired I have tried to avoid working in the rain. Weatherman said slight chance of sprinkles for the next several hours so I ventured out to clean up another little pile of small stuff.

    Of course it flat out rained once I started cutting and didn’t stop until the last piece was stacked on the rounds stack.

    [​IMG]


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2024
  2. Eric Wanderweg

    Eric Wanderweg

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    Murphy's Law is a lot more dependable than any weather man will ever be ;) That does look miserable. I hate being out in the cold rain. Much prefer 10-20 degrees colder and snowing if I've got to be working outside.
     
  3. Warner

    Warner

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    We were told mid week that a storm was coming. 6-12” was predicted, now they are saying 2-4”. I’ll always say we will know when it’s over what happened. Hype is over the top with everything today. “Look at the bird”!
     
  4. Eric Wanderweg

    Eric Wanderweg

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    I was just downgraded from 7-13" to 4-8". The checks pouring into the NWS stations from Wonder Bread must've bounced.
     
  5. billb3

    billb3

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    We were originally 2-4" and now 8 to 12".
    Not a fan of storms tracking further south than originally forecast (unless, of course if they track much farther south).
     
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  6. jrider

    jrider

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    If they are always so wrong, why do you all keep tuning in?
     
  7. Jeffrey Svoboda

    Jeffrey Svoboda

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    We're hopeful that one day they might actually do their job right. What a goofy fantasy that is tho cause most no one does anymore.
     
  8. jrider

    jrider

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    With some research, you will find out they are a lot more accurate than most think. Here's just one link. There are many others out there.
    Meteorologists Are Always Wrong, Right?
     
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  9. Jeffrey Svoboda

    Jeffrey Svoboda

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    From what I've seen, most just regurgitate what another one says. Looking at some past storms that they've missed on and not many contradict what the main stream is saying. They all seem to blow it way outta proportion anymore when it comes to irregular storms. It's like they're hoping for the worst most times.
     
  10. Eric Wanderweg

    Eric Wanderweg

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    I’ll play devil’s advocate and say that they can never win. They blow it out of proportion and they’re an _____. They don’t give enough warning, people get stranded out on the roads (or worse), and they’re an even bigger _____. Why do we continue to watch them and put stock in anything they have to say is the million dollar question though. Maybe it has something to do with narrative ;) “These people can’t predict what’s going to happen in 3 hours so why should we believe them when they claim to have any knowledge about what’s going to happen in 30 years?” Which without beating that dead horse again, is also a legitimate question.
     
  11. Jeffrey Svoboda

    Jeffrey Svoboda

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    Oh i definitely wouldn't want their job though it could be fun to use some of the technology they have available to them.

    In all reality tho that's the job they picked. If they didn't feel like they could do it properly why did they get into it? Cause they new they could be wrong all the time and still have a job?

    I guess maybe some are right more than wrong? I'll bet their area of coverage is somewhere like Phoenix, AZ.

    I just don't understand how their predictions are getting worse over time, or so it seams. Makes me think some of their fundamental or core data for predicting weather is wrong.
     
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2024
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  12. Eric Wanderweg

    Eric Wanderweg

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    My local weather guy on AM talk radio does a fantastic job. He’s been doing it for close to 40 years and he gives context. Whenever there’s a record high or low temperature, rainfall, snowfall, etc. he makes it a point to add in when the last time that record was broken. Sometimes it’s a year ago, sometimes 100. But he doesn’t sensationalize anything. He’s old school. A dying breed.
     
  13. stoveliker

    stoveliker

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    Well, 30 years ago, the forecast was "there may be snow", now they predict a track.

    And to be fair, they did already three days ago warn that the exact track would make a big difference given that it's so narrow. But no one seems to read or remember the caveats provided with the forecast.
     
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  14. stoveliker

    stoveliker

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    I do agree that everything these days is a xxx-mageddon, which is why I don't watch the weather, I read the forecasts.
     
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  15. NH mountain man

    NH mountain man

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    I agree.
     
  16. RCBS

    RCBS

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    Me on the open top tractor when I go up to the north parcel and any sort of clouds are overhead. Been caught up there half dozen times in the past. No shelters, 20 minute tractor ride back to one. Kudos to those who know what this GIF is from.

    [​IMG]
     
  17. Jeffrey Svoboda

    Jeffrey Svoboda

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    We've had at least one good local one here but it's been years. I can almost remember his name but iirr, he had this game he'd play called 5 degree guarantee. They had a pot of money they'd add to each day and then once he was off 5° they'd pick a name and give the money away.
     
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  18. billb3

    billb3

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    The National Weather Service has been sued for loss off life and lost. They have to predict the worst possible outcome, especially wind potentials.

    I think most people mock weatherpeople, not because they are wrong so often but because they tend to stray from the range of possibilities and try to predict an exact outcome, which is unwise. It's not an exact science no matter how much you pretend that it is.
     
  19. jrider

    jrider

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    Blowing out of proportion and getting it wrong are two different things. Unfortunately, we live in age of sensationalism.
     
  20. Hashknife

    Hashknife

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    This website/app is your friend....

    Real time radar. It is the most accurate I have used and I have been using it for about 10 years.

    Screenshot_20240213-183226.png