Yeah, it all depends on what each of us figure his / her labor is worth. Using the 'rule of thumb' that one cord of firewood is equal to 208 gal of fuel oil, $225 / cord would be just over $400 for fuel oil. The whole question for me is how much is my time and effort worth per cord of wood? And prices are not that high here yet, still hovering around $175 / gal for fuel oil. But now fuel oil prices are moving so the question becomes how high will they go? Brian
Yeah, sometimes when it moves, it moves fast and there is no telling where it will stop. It could go up $0.20, $0.30 / gal. or it could rise more than $1.00 / gal. One of the reasons I bought firewood when I did- if oil prices fall it might turn out to be a mistake but still it is now August and I am glad I have enough wood for this winter and beyond. But trying to plot firewood prices, availability and oil prices is impossible. Might as well roll dice as far as I can see. Brian
Why, wood will be cut stacked split.. you will use it before it rots in over 10 years.. oil will go up and down many times by then...
Every time it goes up they're gouging ? What is it called when it goes down. Almost $4 here not long ago. Tied to and responds to the free market price of a bbl of crude. Some of what drives oil prices up and down is nuts sometimes.
Because if oil prices falling cause a drop in firewood prices, then I will have $425 worth of firewood I may be able to buy for substantially less. Hoarding anything is economically risky because of this: buying 10,000 gals. of fuel oil for say, a 10% discount is GREAT if prices stay similar but if they fall 60%, exactly as they have in the last couple of years, then that person is the proud owner of a LOT of $4 / gal. oil that can be replaced for $1.70. Hoarding firewood would not be so bad if a person was a little closer to the source price; if I bought 7 to 9 cord of log- length firewood, and had 2 or 3 winters' worth, and the price was $800, and then it fell to $600, well the pain is not so bad as compared with buying firewood as splits and having the price go down by 40%. If a person gets his / her firewood for <basically> little to no cost, and the only thing in it is labor and some saw, splitter and truck (or trailer) maintenance, then there is far less risk of a large change in price. I mean how many gallons of fuel does it take to process 7 to 9 cord of wood, 5 gallons? 10 gallons? So if the price of gasoline drops in half, the actual out- of- pocket value lost is what, $20? $30? Another reason why I want to get to the log- length firewood buying stage. Brian
If you look at the market price of oil it has little to do with what the consumer pays, in many cases. Oil dropped today and I can almost be certain the home heating oil price will not go down. Whenever there is a bump up in the market the price to the consumer rises instantaneously. $4 a gallon for HHO would have me burning the furniture to keep warm.
The market price for oil has everything to do with what the consumer pays. But it isn't the only everything. WTI and Brent are just two indicators of dozens of oil prices. You use them to watch trends on spot prices and futures prices. And what the consumer pays is not dependent solely on today's spot price. There's reserves sitting in tanks( glut is what's been driving the bear market mostly lately ) . There's a slew of influences. The price of gasoline at the pump reflects not just what the market will bear but what tomorrow's wholesale price is going to be. If tomorrow's wholesale price is confidently going to be the same then the value in the gasoline station's tank is worth what they paid. If the price is going down then you sell at your usual margin unless the guy across the street filled his tanks with the cheaper priced gasoline and lowered his price accordingly. To compete. Then you have to decide to sell at your usual margin and lose customers to the guy across the street or lower your price to compete and give up some profit. If the price is going up then the supply in your tank is worth what you're going to have to pay to replace it and that drives prices up. Almost instantaneously. You have to watch your margins or you go out of business, especially in a small margins business that makes it's profits with high volumes of product.
The margins are indeed tight for the independent owners of gas stations. I know someone who owned a name brand gas station and they kept lowering his profit per gallon. 5 years ago they lowered it from 6.5 cents to 5.5. Might even be lower now. This is the reason many have set up marts in their station. That's where the profit is. The profit on HHO is much higher. As much as $.50 a gallon, IIRC.
If crude oil keeps dropping consumer will drop. It's not an instantaneous market response. The Saudis are auctioning oil.... Good points! Another factor for BDF to think about is the state of RI is, from what I last read going with a "carbon tax". Don't know about the details. Coercing more "natural" and "sustainable" energy sources could drive up demand on wood further down the road...
Not likely on the carbon tax. RI is a really odd state regarding politics; the state leans hard left, the elected officials are always extremely percentages of Democrats, and we are in the middle of some of the most left- leaning states in the country. Then RI plays its funny little trick: there is a strong conservative streak right down the middle that breaks out like a sunrise every time a bill goes through the state legislature. As an example: RI is the only state from the Mid- Atlantic until Maine that allows 1) "assault rifles", 2) unlimited magazine capacity, 3) individuals to purchase, transport and posses all types of firearm without any state licensure or oversight. So Carbon Tax.... not likely to pass or be implemented. The House held that bill in committee back in May so nothing will happen this year at least. The state coercing anything is driving me to move further down the road Brian
Ive been watching the firewood prices here, and a large percentage of peoples prices are actually creeping up. I saw $360 per cord 1 year seasoned the other day. What a bargain, can it be 20% dirt and rocks too?!?!
My firewood guy of 2 seasons breaks down wood pallets and sells the larger, bottom pieces. 30% oak, 70% softwoods. About 7-10% mc. $105/cord. My stove loves it! Usually loader' twice a day no further north than I am....
Nope, the ideal steel is very controllable, so bringing it up to temp, engaging the cat, and slowly cutting the air back bring the temps right down. Woodshed w/firewood:
Some good news, HHO down 5 cents to $2.04. Were having trouble staying above 70° today. Got a little warmer and humid an hour ago.
Do your margins include related costs? One example, I go to a gas station to fill my car, my HHO supplier used to deliver to my home. The cost of the truck & driver have to be paid for... KaptJaq
