Perhaps the manager at your lowes saw the writing on the wall and didn't go overboard ordering boatloads of product that won't move. Probably not, I bet there's a king's ransom supply behind the store.
I can't speak for the BB as we don't do business with them in NE so I don't have 1st hand knowledge with them, but I can tell you that the speciality stores, and most others that carry more of what is considered the "better" pellets are very steady. Not over run busy, but really steady and business for them has be overall...great. If we have missed any business because of lower priced heating oil, we certainly haven't felt it directly at this point and if you are doubting me, please just go and park yourself outside our plant at Upton and you will see a very steady stream of trucks going out each day from the plant. I get feedback from my network of trucker. who also haul from other plants and they report that the manufactures for the most part that service New England are not sitting on any kind of excess inventory..... So Doug...define excess inventory....to me that is anyone that is sitting on unsold product that would be in excess of say 5,000 tons. Up to that point for a plant of any size that is just a normal working inventory. When I see and hear about huge inventories at some of the boxes of 2 or 300 tons, I know that only represents a decent weekend once the cold weather shows up.....So Jay, to answer your question of lower prices anytime soon.....I'm not really seeing it....but I have know to be wrong sometimes....just ask my wife......but lets just say I am and prices do drop...what will you save....$10...$20...maybe $25....you aren't even talking real money......spread over 5 months of burning, that is simply chump change....I don't care who you are, that simply isn't a lot of money over the whole burning season....Nobody wants to spend than they have to...but in the big picture, this is pocket change.
I know someplace where i have seen a mountain (the size of everst) of pellets which i have never seen before. Just saying.
I've seen 2 different pellets at Lowes in the Pocono area: No Name listed Hardwood and Greene Team KaptJaq
I was at he Wilkes Barre Lowe's last Friday the GTP are $294.50 "contractor pack" and Green "Un" Supreme...didn't bother getting the price. They had quite a few ton on the upper shelves in the Garden Center.
What boggles my mind is how you always seem to over look the cost and the mindset of the area. Oils cheaper, they will still burn pellets. Pellets may go down, Who cares, not significant. The reality is it is very significant to the majority of folks in this area. Even those that have money. Why not save a hundred bucks when you can. I know I would never turn it down.
I'm sure, for a lot of people at current prices, pellet stoves will go from primary heat source to ambiance heater. Between the costs and work involved with a pellet stove it will be a no-brianer for many people. I will be surprised if pellet sales either die completely or stay at prior year levels. As with most products, lead-time to market can be a killer. KaptJaq
The only bug I see in this reasoning ointment is the stuff going out of Upton isn't necessarily SOLD yet by the retailers.....its been wholesaled. Now, if product stack up at the retailers, loads out of Upton may well slow down. You know how I love to play the Devil's Advocate! That being said, its fairly busy. While we have plenty of product so far sitting on the ground, our delivery file is about 8 weeks out right now, so cant agree its slow. Will the lower oil prices affect sales? Now, I just don't know, but so far, this early in the season, it doesn't look like it has, the caveat there being its still early. As delivery files extend, folks may well say something like "10 weeks for delivery?! I cant wait that long....guess I will burn oil...." My only answer to that is to have folks pick up their own product......
So don't believe me...but that comment just came from one of the largest retailers in all of NE...with an 8 week order file....and yes we supply them. You would be surprised how many of us are creatures of habit and they call up their pallet dealer and ask what the price is and order their 3 or 4 tons, give them their cc or debit card number and don't give it another thought till next year....LW does have a point, I don't know what is sold or not sold at the retail end when it leaves my Upton plant...but every truck that leaves that plant is sold as far as our sales are concerned and when I see dealers upping their orders sooner than expected or adding more volume than we have talking about, I can only conclude their sales are better than they expected them to be, or they are expecting them to be and don't want to be caught short. The NE market in the last 2 years has really stepped up and accepted better pellets and are willing to pay the price for them....but there are not that many really good pellets available. Some of the better ones like Barefoot, Vermont's, Hamer's, Cubex, LaCrete's, and ourselves (don't bust my balls, I know there are more that I haven't listed) are either sold out for the season or have very good order files and are not hurting for business. Logic would think that the rush to use heating oil in place of pellets would be heard all thru NE, but at this point it truly hasn't been a big issue...much to the dissappointment to some on this forum..... Don't forget that heating oil is very widely used in the more rural areas of NE and for the most part, heating oil is still well over $2.00 gal out there, so some of the savings are not as great as first thought, not to mention, many customers much prefer the heat from a pellet stove than from a oil furnace or base board....just sayin.
I have to agree, from what I have seen. Especially now where the BBS have decided to make a profit on pellets, instead of just getting people into the store. The spread, is what I attribute better sales at local levels to, as much as anything. We have, in our opinion, some very good brands, as good as any. And the spread between these, and BBS economy stuff, is in the 10-15 dollar range... Sometimes less! As for people just buying because they want good stuff.. We bought 5 tons of Doug Fir, just in case someone wanted to try a ton. Didn't think for a second that in our area they would go over very big. We are on our third truckload... People calling from all over the place, because their local guys are out... So the demand, as Doug mentioned, is a reality. (IMO) Sales here are ahead of last year. Now to be fair, we beat, and beat, and beat, the "Buy early" concept to people, to death.. to avoid problems of the last two seasons.. so that may be part of the spring/early summer sales. And now, usually the busiest time, may indeed drop off some. But it doesn't look like it yet.. Dan
That's the first place I look and those racks were empty and I see by Capt Jaq's post confirmed 0 available at my store.
75ish ...will try to push 100 in the next couple of months ... granted nothing terrible happens...touch wood. There are mills that ship 50-75 trucks per day....I think some of you don't realize how large this market is....
Uh, no, sorry to disagree w/ you Doug. I'm in NY, and anyone who knows anything about the cost of living knows that NY is one of, if not THE most expensive places to live/heat. And prices for HHO here are UNDER $1.90.
So I guess the New York State Energy Retail Dealers Association doesn't know what they are talking about....now, these are average prices...so maybe you do have someone selling heating oil for $1.90 near you, but it sure is not the average in your state according to them.... I just checked with two of my larger heating oil dealers ...one in NH and the other in MA (yes I know that is not NY) and both were $2.54 as of this afternoon and as of the close of heating oil futures today, the price has jumped $.23 since the low last week...and from experience I can tell you that dealers are usually much faster to raise prices than lower them.....but maybe something happened in the last 24 hours to these prices that I'm not aware of...so I guess I could be wrong...but I sorta doubt it....!!.... Source: NYSERDA, "New York Home Heating Oil Price Monitoring Program" (Posted #2 Fuel Oil Credit Price) (Prices last updated 09/01/2015) Dealers are surveyed weekly from September through March; April through August, the survey is conducted twice a month. Latest Surveyed Home Heating Oil Prices 08/31/2015 Cents Per Gallon New York Statewide 259.0 Long Island Region 277.5 New York City 270.5 Lower Hudson Region 266.2 Upper Hudson Region 246.6 Capital District Region 245.9 North Country Region 253.9 Central Region 234.4 Western Region 261.3
You are both sort of right. I live in the Long Island area, the highest on the chart. When I heated with oil I would look at the same report that Doug posted before I would call for a delivery. I found that if I just asked for a delivery it would be very close to the survey price. If I haggled with one dealer, I could easily save 10-15% off the survey price. If I called around I could usually save somewhere between 20-25%, sometimes more. The dealers reply to the survey with their "asking price". It is not a survey of actual selling prices. KaptJaq
